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 Brazil’s New Tropical Strain of Wheat

agriculture arable barley blur

Brazil may have found a new strain of wheat that could revolutionise the global power imbalance between the global North and the global South. 

The global North by nations that industrialise, and let’s primarily in the 19th century, with the British Empire being the first nation to go down the road of industrialisation beginning in the 1760s though historians debate the start date.

The nations that make up the global North are primarily nations that were part of the United States alliance to defeat the Soviet Union from 1945 until the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the fall of the Soviet state in 1990. 

As for the Global South, these nations tend to be African nations, China, India, Eastern European nations, South American nations and the Russian Federation. However, these definitions will be debated whether China is a developed nation or a developing country. 

Nations not part of tropical zones and traditional farming economies have been typically more successful than nations that rely on other food produce and animal husbandry to survive. 

The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the Equator. They are defined in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere at 23°26′10.5″ N and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere at 23°26′10.5″ S. 

The tropics are also referred to as the tropical zone and the torrid zone. Which, in layperson’s terms, is pretty much the nations within the centre of the earth if you are viewing the tropical area from a map. 

With the breakthrough in wheat development, Brazil introduced a new wheat strain that can thrive in tropical climates, paving the way for self-sufficiency in just five years! Discover the incredible breakthrough that could change the game for agriculture. 

However, the Geopolitical Analyst Peter Zeihan stated, ‘It will be two years to see if the new wheat works’.

sunset cereals grain lighting  Wheat
Photo by Pixabay on

 The Balance of Power

Nations like Brazil may no longer depend on food imports but become self-reliant with food production within their countries.

A lack of dependency on grain imports from places like Ukraine, the United States and its corn belt and Russia are high grain producers.

With nations like Brazil with tropical climates having the possibility of self-sufficiency, this provides the opportunity for these nations to wean themselves off dependency on other states.

Nations don’t have friends; they have interests; each country competes in either hostile or friendly competitive nature to become a dominant power in their region or aspirations like China and India to become regional or global hegemonies.

It will be quite some time to see whether or not the new Brazilian strain of wheat will be successful, but with globalisation breaking down, this will be a godsend to states that are more dependent on global trade for national survival.

If the nation is not food sufficient, then that nation in a deglobalised world will face starvation and governmental collapse nations like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other desert kingdoms depend on international trade and the continued survival and maintenance of their populations.


Britannica Corn Belt region, United States link

National Geographic Tropics link

Zapp Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years link

Tweet CZapp link

Spiegel Brazil Has High Hopes for a New Strain of Wheat link

Zeihan on Geopolitics Brazil’s Game-Changing Wheat: A Revolutionary Shift in Global Power || Peter Zeihan link

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Ukraine War: The Grain Crisis and Mass Famine

abandoned battle tank

Russia announced on Monday, 17 July 2023, that the Black Sea grain deal would not be extended since the start of the Ukrainian conflict in 2014 with the seizure of Crimea and the launch of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in February of that year has been renewed on average within 105 days.

The trade agreement allowed Ukrainian great exports you pass from southern parts of Ukraine connected to the ocean as well as the use of the Crimea peninsula to ship grain through the Black Sea and the Bosporus to the rest of the world.

This initiative has enabled Ukraine to export agricultural products through Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea; however, Ukrainian exports are only at a fraction of pre-war levels.

Before the conflict, Ukraine exported roughly 25 to 30 million tons of corn a year, mostly through the Black Sea, and 16 to 21 million tons of wheat.

Including only three ports has limited the capacity to ship grain through the Black Sea under the pact.

Ukrainians currently have around 18 million metric tons of grain ready to be exported around the globe, with this deal no longer being renewed.

The termination of the grain deal should sound alarm bells for everyone.

As one of the world’s largest grain exporters, Ukraine has played a vital role in feeding the world’s population.

With exports already limited, the end of this deal will likely spark widespread shortages, price increases, and famine.

This will increase food prices by a factor of four which for the United States will be an extra $0.25. Which last time global food prices increased contributed to the Arab Spring was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s.It began in Tunisia in response to corruption and economic stagnation.

So why did Russia terminate the deal? Reports from the Kremlin state that not all conditions outlined in the deal had been met, so the agreement ceased to be valid.

Admittedly, I’m surprised that the intermittent coordination between Kyiv and Moscow lasted this long, and that’s before we even look at the Kerch Strait Bridge being attacked (again) on the eve of this deal’s expiration date.

Ukraine War: The Grain Crisis and Mass Famine
Photo by Victor Malyushev on Unsplash

The Long-term Geopolitical Consequences

According to the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed three Ukrainian ports to export 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food to the world.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly claimed that rich nations ultimately benefit from the Ukrainian export of grains.

Data from JCC has shown that 57% of grain from Ukraine went to the poorest developing nations such as Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia, for instance, which are dependent on food imports from Ukraine, he said.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said this month that 45 countries need outside food assistance, with high local food prices ‘a driver of worrying levels of hunger’ in those places.

However, the nation that gets the most food imports from Ukraine is China, with nearly a quarter of all grain from Ukraine, which feeds the Chinese population of between 800 million to 1.2 billion due to the nation not being self-sufficient or having a diverse enough supply chain to cope with shocks like the Ukrainian conflict.

This could very well be why this deal with the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian government has lasted so long due to the influence of the Chinese Communist Party upon the Russian government led by Vladimir Putin though this is mainly speculation.

There is much doubt from analysts like Peter Zeilhan, who repeatedly stated that the Chinese government, which has become a cult of personality dedicated to President Xi Jinping, can no longer make rational decisions.

Ukraine War: The Grain Crisis and Mass Famine
Photo by Omar Elsharawy on Unsplash

Who Will be Hurt the Most

High costs for grain needed for food staples in places like Egypt, Lebanon, and Nigeria exacerbated economic challenges and helped push millions more people into poverty or food insecurity.

Rising food prices disproportionately affect people in developing countries because they spend more money on meals.

Poorer nations that depend on imported food priced in dollars are also spending more as their currencies weaken, forcing them to import more because of climate change.

Under the deal, prices for global food commodities like wheat and vegetable oil have fallen, but the food was already expensive before the war in Ukraine, and the relief hasn’t trickled down to kitchen tables.

Nations only gain their independence in the post-World War II environment and do not have the institutions or the democratic legacy in their DNA, unlike nations like the United States and the United Kingdom, to cope with the rising challenges of an increasingly divided world order.

It’ll be at least a few years before Ukrainian grain is returned to global markets.

In the meantime, nations that will suffer will be people experiencing poverty and those that don’t have oversupply options for feeding their nation’s population.

This will mean war and instability for nations that cannot feed themselves, leading to more regional and civil conflicts within those regions due to mass starvation being the ultimate continuity killer for a nation’s continuity, legacy and existence.

The Russian Federation’s wheat shipments have hit all-time highs following a large harvest.

U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that it exported 45.5 million metric tons in the 2022–2023 trade year, with another record of 47.5 million metric tons expected in 2023–2024.

Ukraine War: The Grain Crisis and Mass Famine
Photo by william william on Unsplash


PBS Hour News Russia suspends deal allowing Ukraine to export grain, destabilising global food markets link

CNN News Ukraine claims responsibility for new attack on key Crimea bridge link

Reuters Black Sea grain deal: What’s next now that Russia has pulled out? link

Zeihan on Geopolitics Russia Terminates the Black Sea Grain Deal (My Thoughts from the Last Year) || Peter Zeihan link

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