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Russian Demographics and Ukraine War

war destruction in ukrainian city

Russian Federation and Russia historically have been a kingdom, Empire and nation that is easy to invade but very hard to defend against the Mongols; the first French Empire and Nazi Germany found this out for themselves and a host of other nations that invaded or have had wars against Russia. 

Russia has flatlands perfect for Mongol hordes and organised armies and tank divisions. 

Russia has shown that it can defend itself if it controls the invasion points into Russia by controlling the Carpathian Mountains last time the Russians had this control and security was during the Cold War from 1945 into the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

Russians could only have security by having control of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia, including parts of Finland which Russia won during the Finnish-Soviet War of 1939 to 1940, more commonly known as the Winter War. 

This war also guaranteed that Finland would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the alliance network created by the United States of America to fight Russia. 

These geographical areas are essential to Russia because other power must do more than send tanks through these buffer zones. The territory is outside of natural defences, flatlands, and enough native infrastructure and space to ensure the war happens outside Russia’s borders. 

Russia’s defence planning mainly involves plugging the invasion gaps with soldiers and fighting along defensive lines. Russians fight their wars by rail, not by roads, due to massive infrastructure projects not being practical due to the natural Russian geography.

destroyed residential building in ukraine  Ukraine War
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Geopolitics

It is hard for Westerners and people growing up in a liberal, multicultural and democratic society and worldview to understand the motivations for Russian leaders wishing to conquer and hold vast sway of territory. 

It’s not only alien but an antithesis to Western values since 1945. 

What needs to be understood is that the Russian leadership and peoples come from entirely different historical and cultural backgrounds. Russians are not just Europeans; they are so Asians. 

The Russians are Europeans who meet the Mongol hordes and see what has been created in contemporary Russia due to Western and Eastern cultural influences. 

Russia is not a liberal society; it does not favour a liberal worldview that has been hard-won and thought for in the West, where the individual is just as important as the collective. 

This is why the Russians can afford to take losses of 5 to 1 or 10 to 1, and Western liberal nations can not afford those kinds of losses because the West favours individuality over collectivism is one of the significant differences between Western civilisations and other civilisations. 

There is also the Russian view of international politics when it is the survival of the fittest, where nations rise and fall in their abilities to protect their soil and compete to be the global or regional hegemony. 

History before 1945 was when nations thought nations were in an independent self-help system described by international relations scholars like John Mearsheimer, author of, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, and the system where nations fight for survival. 

Mearsheimer uses the example of Otto von Bismarck and their policy of destroying the Poles to prevent the recreation of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, which would threaten Germany and the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires, respectively. 

The reason why this was such a threat to Germany was that in the 19th century, Germany was surrounded by enemies to the West in the forms of the Second French Empire, the East by the Russian Empire, to the south by the Austrian Hungarian Empire and to the north the decaying Scandinavian powers of Denmark and Sweden. 

As for the North Sea, this was the territory of the British Empire, the largest empire the world had ever seen, dominating international trade in the 19th century. 

So like Russia and its actions in the Ukraine war and Germany in the 19th and early 20th century, these nations perceive themselves as being surrounded by enemies and aggressors who would see their destruction if given a chance but keep in mind their point of view. 

They are not protected by natural defences like Great Britain and the United States of America; they are islands onto themselves. Geography plays a massive part in political decisions, what Tim Marshall, a journalist and author, ‘prisoners of geography’.

devastated bus stop in town after bomb explosion  Ukraine War
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Russia Re-establishing Control of Invasion Gaps

Russia, since the end of the Cold War in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, has been trying to regain invasion gaps into Russia since 1992 with the occupation Transnistria region of Moldova.

In 1991 Moldova declared independence from the Soviet Union; shortly after this event, the ethnically identifying region Transnistria situated on the east bank of the Dniester River, unilaterally declared independence with the backing of Russia. 

The declaration triggered armed conflicts in the region, ending in a ceasefire on July 22 1992. Transnistria is a largely Russian-speaking population and has remained unofficially part of the Russian Federation since 1992, with Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria. 

Transnistria is home to Russia’s largest arms arsenal from the Second World War. 

For people reading this who are fans of history, the collapse of the Soviet Union is very much reminiscent of the partition of the German Empire at the end of World War I in 1918, the Empire was broken up, and independent states like Poland were created. 

Unfortunately, the divisions and new states created after World War I caused greater divisions and hatred that contributed to Second World War because ethnic Germans not living within the much reduced German Republic/Weimar Republic in 1918 and 1933 gave Nazi Germany a cause bill to expand its territories. 

The World after the Cold War did not effectively deal with the remnants of the Soviet Union and Russia after a Cold War spanning from 1945 until 1989; like the Second World War, the origins of the Ukraine War can be found in the aftermath of the Cold War. 

The Allied nations defeated the Russians, like Imperial Germany, after 1918. 

However, due to the Russian use and availability of nuclear weaponry, that state could ne be defeated, which, like the First World War, led to the Second World War from 1939 to 1945, the Russians were able to rearm and rebuild their economy to be a recurring threat to the West. 

‘Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much’-Oscar Wilde, an Irish poet and playwright. 

Russians have repeated this process of occupying territory to fill invasion gaps in Russia, the examples above Transnistria region and during the Georgian Civil War 1992 to 1993. On October 20, around 2,000 Russian troops moved to protect Georgian railroads. 

On October 22, 1993, the government forces launched an offensive against pro-Gamsakhurdia rebels led by Colonel Loti Kobalia and, with the help of the Russian military, occupied most of Samegrelo province. 

Again in 2008, Russians on the pretext of protecting Russians after Georgia deported four suspected Russian spies in 2006. 

Russia began a full-scale diplomatic and economic war against Georgia, followed by the persecution of ethnic Georgians living in Russia. 

By 2008, most residents of South Ossetia had obtained Russian passports. 

Like the Ukraine War, the Russian Federation created puppet republics since the 2008 war and subsequent Russian military occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian government, along with four other UN member states, considers the territories sovereign independent states: the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia.

entrance to residential building devastated by explosion  Ukraine War
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Russian Demographics

The Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, South Korea and Japan have some of the world’s worst demographics with Ukraine due to the Ukraine war since 2014 has entered the club of nations with decaying demographics. 

This means that nations that do not have replacement generations face the extinction of their cultures and economies because devout people who invest and work in the economy cultures and then nations would fade from human history. 

Massive gouges are out of the Russian demographics due to the trauma of the previous century, with World War II killing 22 and 27 million Russians. 

The great famine of 1930 to 1933 killed 7 to 8 million Russians and 4 to 5 million Ukrainians. 

One of the most significant demographic crunchers in Russian people was the missed decade of the 1990s, were death rates doubled and birth rates halved. 

What has been happening recently due to the war in Ukraine is that 1.3 million Russians a 35 and below fled the Russian Federation. 

This happened due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and to fear of being drafted into fighting as part of the Russian war machine in the classic throw bodies at the problem until it goes away strategy of Russian warfare.

silhouette photo of a mother carrying her baby at beach during golden hour  Ukraine War
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Sources and Bibliography

Atlantic Council The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light link

Wikipedia Russo-Georgian War link

United States Holocaust Memorial THE WEIMAR REPUBLIC link

TRT World What is the Russian army doing in Transnistria? link

Prisoners of Geography: Read this now to understand the geopolitical context behind Putin’s Russia and the Ukraine crisis: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall link

Zeihan on Geopolitics Ask Peter Zeihan: Will Putin “Disappear” and Updates on Russian Demographics? link

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Deglobalisation: The US Withdrawal as Global Protector

america ancient architecture art

The driving force behind deglobalisation is the decrease in the size of United States destroyers in terms of the available numbers to patrol global shipping lanes and protect international shipping not just for the United States and its allies but also for non-aligned nations, including Russia and China.

As of writing, the United States has 150 destroyers and 11 supercarriers, insufficient to protect the global oceans. Its leading American allies, such as the Japanese, began a rearmament programme to protect their national interests.

As globalisation breaks down because the USA is no longer interested in maintaining a globalised international economy, the US allies will begin rearming themselves and pursuing a more independent foreign policy strategy.

The United States does not need globalisation even though it will lead to higher living costs and inflation as it brings its industries and manufacturing back to America.

Furthermore, the United States is a continental economy, meaning unlike smaller nations that have fewer resources, the United States doesn’t need globalisation.

Deglobalisation and Globalisation: Yalter Conference

Why America Created Globalisation

Unlike the British Empire during the age of the Pax Britannica from 1815 to 1914, the British pursued a free trade policy and the development of the first version of globalisation to enrich the English economy and expand its influence globally.

The British needed its empire to become wealthy by trading in foreign markets within the imperial system that the British and other imperial powers created in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries.

Furthermore, Britain is an island nation much smaller than its neighbouring European rivals and tiny compared to the United States. For the British to be a relevant power and successful, it relied on international trade and shipping.

The United States never needed globalisation and only created globalisation as we know it; the end of World War II in 1945 was to buy an alliance and win the Cold War against the Soviet Union, which lasted from 1945 to 1989 and the final collapse of the Soviet system in 1990.

With the end of the Cold War, the United States’ incentive to maintain globalisation is fading, and the growing disinterest of the United States since 1992 is leading to a deglobalisation of the international world order.

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Why Japan is Rearming

photo of a snowcapped mountain peak

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been in office since 2021, pushing for the rearmament and remilitarisation of the Japanese home islands.

Currently, Japan has no capacity outside of the support of the United States to launch counterstrike’s against China and Korea.

Its missile range is limited to 200 km outside of the Japanese islands; to have the capacity to attack Beijing and Pyongyang, Japan will need a capacity of 16,000 km.

The Japanese have allowed their military capabilities to dwindle for two main reasons: Japan’s pacifist constitution was enforced at the end of World War II in 1945 and implemented in 1947.

Part of this constitution was the Japanese would not launch offensive operations and would only fight wars in self-defence.

Why Japan is Rearming

The Japanese government is now changing this policy, stating that Japan will only launch a first strike if its sovereign independence is at stake.

They are further stressing that the only reason it would launch a pre-emptive strike is if they had reliable military intelligence that they are facing an immediate attack from a hostile nation.

The second reason the Japanese demilitarised after World War II was the United States being a guarantee of global shipping lanes and its allies willingly or unwillingly in the case of Japan giving over its foreign policy to the United States in return for protection.

It has been over 78 years since the end of World War II, and the United States was able to maintain this monopoly and control over its ally’s foreign policy because the United States created the international system and globalisation which enabled all nations to have access to resources outside of the home nations territory.

One of the key reasons why the Japanese started their imperialism project and took swathes of territory in the Pacific and on the Eurasian continent was the lack of natural resources inside the Japanese home islands.

So, in an imperialist and the survival of the fittest international environment, the Japanese chose to survive and prosper by taking lands and resources from others.

The Americans changed this by protecting global trade and enforcing global peace amongst their allies.

Since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, the Japanese have seen the Americans consistently vote into office individuals who are increasingly isolationist and disinterested in global affairs.

With America drawing this disenfranchisement in the American project of globalisation and internationalism that is causing American allies to start implementing their own foreign policy based upon their national interest, nations like Japan need to rearm.

In some respects, the American withdrawal from the world and being overstretched with the conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of a war in Taiwan in the next five years can be likened to the Roman Empire when it was heading towards its decline, having to defend far-flung provinces and overstretched militarily and financially.

Currently, the USA only has 150 destroyers and 11 supercarriers, which is not enough ships to protect global shipping lanes, which will see, according to the geopolitical analysis Peter Zilhan, more disorder happening in the increasingly deglobalised world.

Why Japan is Rearming

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The Art of Proxy Warfare

destroyed residential building under gray sky

Proxy warfare usually involves two or more powers or neighbouring nations engaged in a long, protracted conflict where both parties primarily use lesser powers to wage conflicts without directly using their full military and economic resources to engage in an all-out brawl.

The reason why nations engage in proxy warfare is that total war, particularly with the advent of atomic weaponry in 1945 and the destructiveness of modern war, makes direct great power engagement increasingly unlikely due to the share costs of open warfare.

(According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, total war is a military conflict in which the contenders are willing to sacrifice lives and other resources to obtain a complete victory, as distinguished from limited war.

Throughout history, limitations on the scope of warfare have been more economic and social than political.)

This is why contemporary nations and throughout human history have engaged in proxy warfare to pursue their national interest as long as there have been kingdoms or nations.

There are many contemporary examples today, with the French supporting their interests in Libya, Syria and Niger going against other Allied powers such as Turkey and Great Britain pursuing separate foreign policies in Syria and North Africa.

Turkey, for example, has seized parts of northern Syrian land and is in a low-level conflict with Russia over influence in Syria and a disagreement with other NATO powers regarding their support of Kurdish separatists in Syria.

Proxy warfare is not always between enemy nations. Still, it can be a great way for governments to pursue their regional and international foreign policies without severely damaging the other allies and interests around the globe.

Proxy Warfare: Cold War 1945 to 1989

Proxy Warfare Before 1900

The art of proxy warfare works best when draining the resources and the ability of a nation’s enemy to fight and engage in other conflicts and pursue its foreign policy around the globe by draining its Treasury and manpower.

Early examples of this strategy can be seen during the Hundred Years War between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of France from 1337 to 1453. During that long conflict, both kingdoms engaged in proxy war conflicts.

These proxy wars were fought in Brittany for the Brittany succession was a conflict between the Counts of Blois and the Montforts of Brittany for control of the Sovereign Duchy of Brittany, then a fief of the Kingdom of France.

It was fought between 1341 and 12 April 1365.

The war over the control of the kingdom of Castile from 1366 60 1367, and finally, the conflict between the Almanacs and Burgundians during the last phase of the Hundred Years’ War.

During these proxy wars, England normally drew the short straw. England at this time had a population between 3 million people and 5.5 million compared to the kingdom of France, which had a population between 14 and 25 million people. The French successfully used proxy warfare as a means to drain the finances of the King of England and remove their ability to wage war was successfully used multiple times.

After Edward, the Black Prince defeated King John II of France, who ruled from 1350 to 1364, in the battle Poitier 1356, successfully led to the capture of the King of France, and his youngest son, Philip, became the first of House Valois Burgundy.

This victory led England and the Plantagenet dynasty to assume control over the dukedom of Aquitaine and most of southern France for at least a decade. English successes were reversed by Charles V of France, who ruled from 1364 to 1380 and aptly called the wise.

His strategy for defeating the English was having them engage in a conflict over the control of the kingdom of Castile.

The English won the war, but his half-brother later murdered King Pedro the Cruel of Castile, and the English did not recover financially, with the Treasury of the Princeton of Aquitaine going bankrupt.

It is this success in the kingdom of Castile that led to the reversal of England’s fortunes, and by the time of Edward III’s death in 1377, the English crown was over £400,000 in debt, and the conflict with France would not resume again until the rain of King Henry V of England from 1413 to 1422.

Proxy Warfare: Hundred Years War

The Wars of the Roses 1455 to 1487

The Cousins War, or the Wars of the Roses, was a great example of a proxy war conflict where foreign powers would intervene in other nation’s internal strife to influence their foreign policies or ensure the enemy is focused on internal concerns.

For the English, the king of France, Charles VII of France, called Victorious, ruled from 1422 to 1461, and his son, Louis XI of the Spider, ruled from 1461 to 1483, backed different candidates for control of the English crown to keep England in a state of civil war.

The French monarchy and great powers engaged in this behaviour to keep the enemy weak and avoid protracted wars. If it hadn’t been for the Wars of the Roses and the madness of King Henry VI of England, then the conflict between England and France would have continued much longer.

The conflict finally ended when the Regency Council Charles VIII of France used Henry Tudor, who was very much a creature of Louis XI, as a means to destabilise the English crown with his success at the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485 primarily due to the pikemen provided by the French crown.

Proxy Warfare: King James II of England

Wars Between France and England in the 18th Century

From the late 17th century until the early 19th century, England and France became embroiled in a Second Hundred Years War or Third Hundred Years War, depending upon which historians you listen to; this new conflict was sparked with the removal of James II of England from the English throne.

His removal opened during the Glorious Revolution of 1688 to 1689. This marked the return of England as an international power within Europe, and its dreams of global supremacy over the French sparked a series of conflicts and proxy wars between both powers.

During the 18th century, the English became the masters of proxy warfare, with the English political classes and culture at that time being financially against creating a large army, seeing them as a means to attack the liberties of native Englishmen.

Due to this development, the English opted to support France’s foreign enemies with financial subsidies; during Frederick the Great of Prussia’s rule from 1740 to 1786, the English paid for his entire nation’s budget to fund them to fight the French and the European continent.

France spent 45 years out of the Hundred Years of the 18th Century at war, with most of their enemies being financially backed by the British for that time.

Another example of proxy warfare during the 18th century between the English and the French was the American Revolution or the American War of Independence from 1775 to 1883.

This is another excellent example of a nation: France supplied men, equipment, and financial backing to Britain’s enemy, leaving that nation weakened internationally and overstretched while trying to maintain control over the 13 colonies.

This scenario is repeated over and over again throughout human history, with the most recent examples being the Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989 and the American war on terror from 2001 to 2021.

Proxy Warfare: Korean War 1950 to 1953

Cold War Period

The Cold War lasted for around 44 years, from 1945 to 1989.

Throughout that period, both the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Republics or just Russia as we would understand it in modern terms were engaged in a conflict over which ideology, capitalism or communism, would be the future of humanity.

United States favoured a liberal approach to the economy where individual citizens had the freedom to invest their goods and services, invest in the US economy, and plan their futures.

In contrast, the Soviet Union favoured a state-planned economy where there was no freedom of market forces to dictate the development of new technologies and the worth of goods and services; this is why, in the last two decades of the Cold War, Russia so massively behind the Western world.

As for the conflict between both superpowers began almost straight after the ending of the Second World War in 1945; the first conflict was in Vietnam, with American involvement starting in 1947 until the conclusion of the Vietnam War in 1975.

The impact of this conflict was that it demoralised the American public against supporting the fight against communism and that the United States public began to mistrust his political leaders. The next conflict was much shorter, lasting from 1950 to 1953, called the Korean War.

With the support of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the United States successfully liberated South Korea from the communist North.

During this conflict, much like the Vietnam conflict, the Soviet Union supported the Chinese and the North Koreans in their war against the United States by providing them with equipment, and this was repeated during the Vietnam War.

The Cold War’s final great conflict was the Soviet-Afghan war, which was waged between 1979 and 1989. The United States supported the mujahedin (including Osama bin Laden, who planned the 9/11 attacks on the USA in 2001), fighting against the Soviet Union.

The significant impact of the Afghan-Soviet war was that it meant the death of the Soviet Union by 1989. The only form of legitimacy that kept the Soviet Union alive was its reliance on the prestige and capabilities of its military.

Without that legitimacy, their failure to win the war in Afghanistan meant the end of the Soviet Union.

Proxy Warfare: Volodymyr Zelensky

Ukraine Proxy War

Suppose any conflict in the history of humanity deserves to be called a proxy war. In that case, the Ukraine deserves that title and the definition.

However, the Ukrainians fighting their war for independence and emerging as a separate identity from Russia would differ significantly from my statement.

For the Ukrainians, the war they have been fighting for the liberation and independence of Ukraine has been going on since the Russians took the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 to the present day.

This could be likened to the American War of Independence from 1775 to 1783, with the Americans emerging as a separate cultural and political identity from England, the mother country.

For the United States and its Western allies, the Ukraine war prevents the opportunity to give a knockout blow to the Russian Federation and ensure Russia as a military power is contained within current territorial boundaries and becomes irrelevant due to its declining demographics.

Ukraine will be Russia’s last war due to the terminal demographic decline. It will take a century to make the corrections necessary to regrow its population due to the fall in birth rates since the end of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

As well as the chaos in the 1990s, Russia has had 40 years without a successful replacement generation that was big enough to replace the previous generations within Russia.

Here is how much Aid the USA has sent Ukraine between January 24, 2022, and July 31, 2023. The Aid has primarily been provided through appropriations bills. This information only covers aid to Ukraine and does not include all U.S. spending related to the war.

Total: $76.8 billion

Humanitarian

$3.9 billion (5%)

Emergency food assistance, health care, refugee support, and other humanitarian aid

Financial

$26.4 billion (34%)

Budgetary aid through the Economic Support Fund, loans, and other financial support

Security assistance

$18.3 billion (24%)

Training, equipment, weapons, logistics support, and other assistance provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative

Total military

$46.6 billion (61%)

Weapons and equipment

$23.5 billion (31%)

Weapons and equipment from Defense Department stocks, provided through presidential drawdowns

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Ukraine War: Winter 2023 and 2024

person in jacket running on snow covered ground

If you have been following my writing since July, you may remember me writing about the Russians targeting power grids and other energy sources during the winter of 2022 and 2023; the Russian Federation did this during the initial Ukraine war launched in February 2022.

The Russians targeted Ukrainian energy due to the complete logistical disaster because Russian mechanised units ran out of fuel for their vehicles and had to withdraw from northern Ukraine back into Belarus.

Due to the Russian military’s failures and corruption, they had to start using siege tactics because if the Russians did not defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, they would try to freeze them to death.

Furthermore, the Russians are deliberately targeting the Ukrainian ability to feed themselves and export agricultural products around the world, which could lead to a mass famine of at least 400 million people, primarily affecting China and the nations like Niger and Nigeria.

As of September, Putin has sufficiently disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports and agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the Russians were bolstering their wheat exports, so global supply has held steady, and prices are still down.

However, relying on Russian grain is unreliable due to the high potential of sea conflicts, privateering, or other factors that could disrupt Russian grain from the Black Sea to the rest of the world.

Eduard Zernin, head of Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters, cited a potential aggravation of what he called ‘hidden sanctions’ that ‘may lead to an increase in freight and insurance costs’ for Russia.

This ‘will be reflected in the price level of wheat and other grains on the world market’, Zernin told Reuters.

Give some perspective on the importance of Russian grain. Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, followed by Canada and the United States. Three countries export more than 20 million tons of wheat: Russia, Canada and the United States.

Russia accounts for nearly 24% of the top 20 largest wheat exporters.

To secure the screen supply, the best option, though it may be unrealistic due to a lack of political will in the West and both American political parties, Democrat and Republican, being hotly divided on the issue of Ukraine due to some Americans viewing the conflict as a foreign war.

The infrastructure development option is building railway networks connecting Europe and the grain from Ukraine to transport agricultural materials.

As the temperatures shift, we will see the Russians change their strategy again. They will transition from attacking Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure to targeting the power grid, but just because the Russian focus has shifted doesn’t mean grain markets will be stable.

Ukraine War

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Ukraine War: Russian Military Equipment and Nukes

saint basil cathedral on red square at new year night

Putin and Kim Jong-un finally had their little group therapy session at the Cosmodrome out in the far east of Russia.

The sides massaging and soothing over their gigantic egos and contemplating who is the most authoritarian, and it appears the main discussion has been focused upon North Korea providing military assistance to the Russians, primarily in the form of artillery shells.

Russian war against Ukraine won’t be letting up anytime soon, with this war for the Russian Federation also being a war for its survival and geopolitical security.

Ukraine is not the endpoint of Russia’s goal, merely the first stepping stone in securing invasion routes into Russia.

With the Ukraine war dragging on into its second year, the Russians need to replenish their dwindling stocks of artillery shells.

With the only options in China and North Korea, Russia has very limited options.

From this deal with Russia, North Koreans may be getting long-range missile tech to help speed up the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.

The development of intercontinental ballistic missiles should be very concerning for the Chinese Communist Party and other nations in the region.

It’s a massive mistake to believe the Chinese and North Koreans are friends with the Koreans under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, who allegedly called the Chinese ‘bastards’ due to China’s imperial aptitude under Xi Jinping regarding the North Korean regime.

Given this deal’s regional and global security implications, countries like South Korea, Japan, China and the US should be worried. Sure, there are sanctions in place, but in all reality, those minor deterrents won’t stop North Korea.

Ukraine War: Russian Military

Industrial Capacity and Technical Skills

Towards the end of the Soviet period, arms control treaties with the US peaked under Gorbachev, but each US President has handled these differently.

Treaties fell under Clinton due to him sleeping with interns in hand to deal with the threat of impeachment from Congress and the Republican party, which meant his Presidency’s focus was on internal issues. By internal matters, I mean keeping his cock in his pants.

The US presidency is very much like the eye of Sauron; they can only focus on one issue at a time.

I had a resurgence under George W. Bush and have since fallen off. Today, the post-Cold War arms treaties have all but vanished, at least in practice far into the geopolitical analyst Peter Zilhen.

Without these treaties, several concerns arise: can Russia maintain its nuclear arsenal? What happens if things go nuclear? What if they launch a nuclear weapon and it fails?

There are too many moral and strategic dilemmas, but we should probably have some roadmap to guide us through these scenarios.

Unfortunately, policymakers still need to establish procedures for specific situations like a failed nuclear strike attempt, which is quite a conundrum.

Russian technical education seller part in the 1980s, and since then, they have relied on foreign companies and workers to keep their industrial capacity and higher technical infrastructure working.

Since the Ukraine War, beginning in 2014 to the present day, those companies have been leaving or have left Russia.

Ukraine War: Russian Military

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European Sanctions Affecting Russian Gas

low angle view of illuminated tower against sky at night

European sanctions have been levelled against Russia since they seized parts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea peninsula in 2014.

They have only increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, most European nations have worked to reduce their dependency on Russian natural gas.

They have successfully delivered this and put the German economy, the manufacturing heart of Europe, at risk.

Russia has experienced the lows help out of natural gas since 1978 onto the Russian natural gas state monopoly Gazprom.

European Sanctions targeting piped natural gas have effectively cut off European supply, and the existing infrastructure cannot be easily redirected.

While Russia has alternative natural gas sources and facilities, the limited workforce and technical challenges make these options difficult to maintain.

The Russian technical education system that actually manages the manufacturing, energy and complicated engineering system collapsed in the mid-1980s, the same time as Russia’s birthrate.

Simply put, the Russian economic system doesn’t have the technical skills to continue manufacturing, nor does it have the population to retrain this particular set of technical skills and the sheer mass to wage the kind of attrition war in Ukraine.

Gerard Dimond, the author of the book Guns, Steel and Germs, argues that societies with large populations succeed because societies that increase in population size will increase the possibilities of generating outliers like Steve Jobs or Nicholas Tesla.

(Nikola Tesla was a Serbian-American inventor, electrical engineer, mechanical engineer, and futurist best known for his contributions to the design of the modern alternating current electricity supply system.)

(Steven Paul Jobs was an American business magnate, inventor, and investor. He was the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Apple; Pixar’s chairman and majority shareholder; a member of The Walt Disney Company’s board of directors following its acquisition of Pixar; and the founder, chairman, and CEO of NeXT.)

It is the outliers that push society forward. Without large populations, the chance of having unique individuals driving forward technological advancements means fewer opportunities.

European sanctions are working well, and these efforts may permanently sever ties to Russian natural gas with little impact on their systems. The Russian natural gas industry faces an unprecedented fall from grace, but not all industries have been impacted equally.

European Sanctions Affecting Russian Gas

Donate To Ukraine Links

United24 link

Come Back Alive link

Nova Ukraine link

Razom link

The $1K Project for Ukraine link

Hospitallers link

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American Supercarriers: Are They the Next HMS Dreadnought Class

grey jet plane

HMS Dreadnought battleship was a revolutionary design at the height of technology when first launched in 1906, which sparked an arms race which partly hurled Europe into the fires of World War I from 1914 to 1918.

The big disappointing issue and problem with the Dreadnought class, which heavily influenced battleship designs until the ending of World War II in 1939 and 1945, was favouring large battleships with massive guns that worked as large floating parcels with long guns.

In 1906, with the advancement of torpedo technology, aeroplanes would first be used in warfare throughout World War I, which also saw the development and progress of aircraft carrier technologies.

The technological innovations and advancements in torpedo technology meant that more giant battleships like the Dreadnought class became obsolete and were replaced by aircraft carrier doctrines with a strong destroyer escort.

The United States may be making a similar mistake as the old European navies by being over-reliant on supercarriers and dismantling the US destroyer-focused Navy dedicated to protecting sea lanes and instead the production and creation of America’s 11 nuclear-powered active supercarriers.

Advancement of Technology

Three technologies spell the doom of large focus battleship navies with ship designs like the HMS Dreadnought.

These technologies are the torpedo, aeroplane and submarine.

The Confederate States of America developed the first submarine during the American Civil War in 1861 to 1865.

The submarines during World War II destroyed eight Japanese aircraft carriers.

This showed that large battleships and overreliance on larger ships are more vulnerable to torpedoes than smaller vessels.

This was why navies during World War II focused more on having aircraft carriers and smaller vessels so that fighting ships such as destroyers and frigates had a better chance of manoeuvring away from incoming torpedoes.

Furthermore, smaller vessels are much more effective at hunting down Wolf Pack of submarines. During World War II, the British successfully managed to destroy 785 U-boats out of 1162.

The remaining 377 U-boats were either surrendered or destroyed by German semen.

Following technology, we have the torpedo, the first one called the Whitehead torpedo. In 1866, Whitehead invented the first practical self-propelled torpedo, the eponymous Whitehead torpedo, the first modern torpedo.

French and German inventions followed closely, and torpedo describes self-propelled projectiles that travelled under or on water.

The final technology that spelt the end of large battleships was the 1903 Wright Flyer.

Wilbur and Orville Wright spent four years researching and developing the first successful powered aeroplane, the 1903 Wright Flyer. It first flew at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, on December 17, 1903, with Orville at the controls.

With a thorough understanding of the impact of the advancement and development of torpedo, aeroplane, and submarine technology, which led to the ending of big ship doctrine and battleship, I don’t have high manoeuvrability.

By looking at the development of these three technologies and the events of World War One and the ending of the Second World War in 1945, we can see how present-day supercarriers may be under threat due to the advancements in Drone technology, which is being demonstrated to be effective during the Ukraine war from 2014 with the Russian Federation taking the Crimea peninsula until the present day.

HMS Dreadnought

Ukraine War and Drone Technology

Humanity has been developing drone technology since the First World War; the first successful remote-controlled aircraft, the British “Aerial Target,” flew in 1917 for anti-aircraft training.

In 1935, the US Navy developed the “Curtiss N2C-2,” an early radio-controlled drone designed for target practice and surveillance.

Currently, the Ukrainian military is successfully flying drones to attack the Russian Federation, with over 190 targets being attacked by Ukrainian drones. Further successful Ukrainian military actions have taken place, with Ukrainians using drones to destroy Russian tanks and ships.

The drone technology the Ukrainians are using against the Russians is predominantly from manufactured goods that can be bought from gadget stores or even a Walmart in the USA, which are being repurposed for use in warfare.

This could potentially mean for America’s carrier fleet that the doctrine of large vessels is becoming obsolete.

Using smaller aircraft carriers and not having all the American eggs spread about multiple vessels in one basket is much more practicable.

With the future of warfare being drone technology on the high seas, the supercarrier may go the same way as the large battleship.

The Americans have wasted money building 11 supercarriers, each costing about $13 billion.

That means the Americans wasted $143 billion on a technology that could be obsolete within a decade due to the advancements taking place due to the Ukrainians being innovative in fighting the war against Russian invaders.

Very often, significant advancements in military technology take place in wartime.

The submarine’s development was due to the deficiency and weakness of the Confederate States of America.

The Ukrainian military, being outnumbered by the Russian Federation, adopting new technologies and methodologies, such as the drone being applied to modern military warfare in the 21st century, has potentially made the American supercarrier doctrine obsolete.

The good news is that everybody else has done the same as the United States and that the Chinese, Russians and others will need to return to the drawing board.

Luckily, the United States is still the wealthiest nation on earth and the global currency, which means the US has money to throw at the problem.

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Ukraine War: Ukrainian Drones

black smoke coming from fire

According to BBC Journalism, it has been suspected that 190 drone attacks have occurred in the Russian Federation and the Crimea peninsula, with the attack getting as far as Moscow.

On 30 August 2023, widespread Ukrainian drones in the north-west one of the targets was an airbase in the Russian city of Pskov, which Ukraine’s military intelligence chief says was attacked from inside Russia — although he didn’t say by whom.

The dry is destroyed according to satellite images of Pskov Airport after the incident shows one aircraft destroyed.

Ukraine War: Ukrainian Drones

Strategic Win for Ukraine

The Ukrainian military can attack Russia internally with drones, which are ironically supplied drones available to the general public and ironically supplied by the Chinese Communist Party and its civilian manufacturing base.

Vladimir Putin comes under more pressure from the Russian civilian public to be more exposed to the conflict happening in Ukraine, which should have been a short war over quickly, for Russia is now chairman into a long conflict that is damaging national cohesion.

The Russian Federation needs this war to be over quickly to achieve its wider strategic objective by securing invasion routes into Russia and re-establishing its old Cold War borders.

Russia is a multi-ethnic empire; it expands and absorbs territories until it reaches defensible natural geographic barriers. This behaviour is part of the Russian political DNA due to Kyiv’s Mongol conquest and destruction in the 13th century and why Russia is still obsessed with securing territory.

The Ukraine War is just another example of this in practice, and success would mean delaying Russia’s demographic collapse. Russia, since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, has been fighting a total of 12 wars.

However, as dissent bubbles amongst these ethnic groups, what happens if Russia can no longer monitor and put the lid on it immediately? How could it possibly project power outside its borders?

The Russians aren’t the only ones feeling the heat after this drone attack.

When a country like Ukraine can practically walk into a Walmart and get what it needs to launch a large-scale assault, that’s one heck of a conversation starter for the Pentagon.

Once the US amasses a flock of drones, they’ll have another way to attack the Chinese navy should they need to.

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Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century

america ancient architecture art

According to a Pew Research Centre survey conducted in 2022, there has been and continues to be a growing trend among Americans (47% vs. 19%).

Roughly a third of U.S. adults (32%) say their nation’s influence on the global stage has stayed about the same.

The growing trend and belief that the decline of American power is a cultural and economic issue internal to the United States and other Western powers due to deindustrialisation.

The American system of world power is not dying.

The American government either deliberately or unintentionally bought its alliance at the end of World War II (1945) to win the Cold War (1945 to 1989) by sacrificing the working classes inside the United States and in developed Nations in the Global North.

The biggest reason for losing faith in the Western world is that the nature of work is changing from an industrial and brawn economy to an intellectual, design and brainpower economy, leaving people behind.

Since the end of World War II, the world has become more prosperous, and more people have been brought out of extreme poverty.

This brings the discussion of China and Russia being active opponents of the economic global system developed by the United States in the post-World War II period.

These two nations, mainly China, will not be the world’s next superpower in the 21st century; it will be another American century because China became prosperous due to the American system and geographic limitations of Russia and China.

Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century
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Winning Allies

How did the Americans win friends and influence people to buy into globalisation led by the United States at the end of World War II? There are three main reasons for American success and why this success still applies to American power in the 21st century.

The United States of America unlike every other nation that had industrialised and had great power status before and after 1945, the USA did not have any significant enemies.

In contrast, the English, French, Germans, Polish, Russian and many others worldwide had historical enemies going back centuries, if not thousands of years. For example, the Vietnamese and the Chinese have been enemies for at least 2000 years.

The British and the French had been at each other’s throats since before the Norman conquest in 1066 to 1815 with Napoleon Bonaparte’s defeat at the Battle of Waterloo.

The United States has only had three enemies historically. The first enemy was the USA’s old colonial masters, the British, which Americans fought a long war from 1775 to 1783 to win their independence, and the Brits also burnt down the White House in the War of 1812.

To the Americans, the British were more of a psychological enemy born out of the trauma of the War of Independence, with the famous Confederate general Robert E. Lee spending the first part of his career building American defences against a possible British invasion.

The next enemy of the United States was the Mexicans, which the Americans thought a brief war between 1845 and 1848 called the Mexican-American War, in which America took half of the Mexican’s lands.

The final and, in some ways, a continuous enemy of the United States and the only nation that realistically threatened the very existence of America was the Russians.

The Americans were fighting a Cold War from 1945 to 1989, with the Russians threatening America with nuclear annihilation.

Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century
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American History

With this brief overview of American history and, to a lesser extent, global history, the United States in 1945 had only existed from 1776 with the Declaration of Independence or 1789 with the ratification and implementation of the American Constitution, depending upon your view of the American start date as a nation.

America in 1945 was at most 169 years old.

This meant that with the United States dominating the whole of the northern hemisphere and having no bad blood with nations of Europe and around the globe, the United States was in the perfect position to be a guarantor of global peace and prosperity.

At the end of World War II, the world was in ruins.

The United States is facing another potential World War against the Soviet Union to fight the Russians and to expand the American spirit’s influence.

The USA came up with a novel solution that was truly unique in human history, which was corporations, specialisation, and globalisation to build a global economy.

The Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, could not and still cannot beat the USA due to the Russian society, particularly its government class, using the outdated view of economics and imperialism to build power and influence.

The global economy was born in 1945, and with it, the American peace in Europe that had not existed since the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476.

The reason for so many European wars since the 16th century was their view of economics that the only way a nation can become wealthy is by another country losing.

They viewed economics as a zero-sum game of the only winners and losers.

Therefore, their view of economics was that Imperial centres would go out into the world, build their empires, and trade predominantly within the Imperial territories.

This meant no nation traded significantly with others, and no specialisation existed.

Before 1945, if a country had no access to raw materials such as coal and steel, that nation would not industrialise.

What the Americans did by guaranteeing global security of global shipping lanes was that all countries that were part of the American-led security system could industrialise without fear of invasion or the loss of access to materials.

Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century
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Globalisation and the Wealth of Nations

Globalisation as we know it comes from specialisation, which Leads to Economies of Scale.

The economies of scale mean that the more time individuals focus on one particular task, the more they become specialised and more effective in performing those tasks.

The Economist and philosopher Adam Smith, the author of The Wealth of Nations, first published in 1776, used the example of the production of a pin.

Smith advocated that each part of the production chain should focus purely on the specialisation.

The miners concentrate on the mining, and the People working on the manufacturing, transportation and other services and skills that go into producing one item focus on that part of the supply chain.

A great example of a modern supply chain is one vehicle comprising 21,000 specialised components from different global supply chains.

If one part is unavailable nationally, that vehicle won’t run.1945, the USA created a global marketplace for its allies and enemies.

For example, the Chinese Communist Party opened its economy after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, and Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978.The rise of China was only possible with the creation of globalisation and specialisation.

What the Western economies, including the USA, did was to deindustrialise their economies, focus on design technology and be active in the more value-added sectors of the economy, according to the analyst and writer Peter Zeihan.

Countries like South Korea, Japan and China were able to enter the global economy due to wealthy nations seeing their young populations as cheap labour as a means to produce cheap manufacturing goods around the globe.

The classic example of Japan was that they became rich and then transformed their economies using manufacturing to become consumer-led economies and economies that focus more on the higher value aspect of global supply chains.

Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century
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China is Getting Old

Unfortunately for China, they are becoming old before they can get rich.

China, like Japan, faces the same issue: an ageing population due to the improvement of their economies, eugenic policies in China with the one-child policy created in 1980 and social factors that have led to the collapse and growth of the population.

For the Japanese, the issue was partly caused by the 1973 oil crisis in the 1970s, the last time Japan had a stable birthrate of 2.1 due to instability that led to couples deciding not to have children and putting off parenthood.

For the Chinese, the Chinese Communist Party implemented the one-child policy due to fear of overpopulation.

For nations to have a healthy demographic, there needs to be more young than older people in the system. If a country has too many older people at the top of a democratic pyramid, it will collapse.

If that nation has not transitioned to a post-industrial society, there won’t be young people to work the hard manufacturing jobs. China has experienced fantastic household income growth over the last 40 years, mainly from 2001 to 2021.China’s citizens were estimated to hold just 9% of the world’s wealth.

That figure has now more than doubled, while median wealth in the country has skyrocketed from $3,111 to $26,752 between 2000 and 2021.Comparison In Japan, the average household net wealth is estimated at USD 294,735, lower than the OECD average of USD 323,960.

When looking at statistics, China is getting old before it can get rich, which means its economy won’t survive without industrialisation or access to the globalised economy.

Why the 21st Century Will Be Another American Century
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Why the USA will still be Number One

The reasons why the United States of America will emerge as the great power of the 21st century and why this century will be another American was due to the mistakes and geographical limitations of America’s opponents in the form of Communist China, Soviet Russia and its successor Russian Federation.

Against the Chinese, all the Americans have to do is cut off access to American technical skills, which the Biden administration is already doing, and wait for the Chinese to die of old age.

For the Russian Federation, the last time the Russians had a population boom was during the Soviet period before the collapse of the USSR in 1991.

The Russians are geographically limited to Eurasia and are blocked by American allies in the Baltic, Balkans, Black Sea and the Pacific.

Furthermore, the Russians operated on the old view of economics and empire; the nation must have Imperial territories and focus trading just within the Empire.

The Russians are also using the last of its generation, born in the 1990s, to fight the war in Ukraine.

The Chinese have not had children due to the one-child policy, and experiencing seven generations of industrialisation in one generation means they also experienced seven generations of demographic decline within one generation.

Unlike Great Britain, the first nation to industrialise and where the Industrial Revolution started in 1769, the United Kingdom experienced a slow population decline over seven generations.

When societies experience industrialisation, they move away from an agricultural economy with plenty of open space, and children are free labour on the farm.

When people start living in cities, children become an expensive burden in the short term, which naturally means people stop having children or have fewer.