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Ukraine War Why Ukraine Cannot Attack Russia

destroyed buildings and streets in ukraine

Russia has been invading Ukraine since 2014, with the Russian government claiming that soldiers invading Ukraine are little green men or are Russian citizens taking a vacation to go to Ukraine. 

The United States government has known since October 2021 that the Russians were planning an invasion. 

The Biden administration informed the Ukrainian government for months before the actual invasion, which took place in February 2022, that the Russians would be invading. 

To prepare Ukrainians for the Russian invasion, the US government sent assets that Ukrainians could use to fight the Russian Federation; these assets were mainly portable sets and other smaller equipment like the Stinger Fiererockets and other anti-tank weaponry. 

This was due to a common consensus that with the Russian Federation having the second-largest land army on the planet, the Ukrainians would fall within the year. 

Instead, during the Ukraine War, Ukrainians have performed above anyone’s expectations.

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Mark Milley

General Mark Milley, the United States Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, carries around a set of notecards that have the overall strategic goals of the USA during the Ukraine conflict, which are as follows;

  1. Don’t allow Ukraine’s defence efforts to become a direct war between the USA and NATO military forces against the Russian Federation.
  • Maintain the unity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation members in the face of Russian aggression.
  • Support the Ukrainian military and its economy with everything the NATO alliance and the USA can provide the Ukrainian government and its armed forces to defend the territorial integrity of the nation of Ukraine. It’s essential to add that without the economic and military equipment of NATO and its affiliate members, and the Ukrainians would be unable to continue the war.
  • Contain the war inside the territorial borders and geographical areas of Ukraine though this can be debated on whether or not Eastern Ukraine and Crimea are Russian territories.

The United States and its allies cannot guarantee that the Ukraine war will mainly occur within Ukraine. The second reason is that the Russians are performing so badly, and now the Ukrainian government is already using paramilitary organisations to attack Russia.

devastated bus stop in town after bomb explosion
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Russian Claim to Ukraine

It’s been repeated in Russian propaganda that Ukraine has always been and always will be part of Russia; this is categorically false information, but like all information that is misinformation, it does contain a grain of truth. 

The Russians as a culture group are Slavic, the same way that Western nations like Germany, Great Britain and France have Germanic roots and Latin roots in their cultures, including their legal system and use of words having Latin and German roots. 

The Russians as a people did begin in Kyiv but were removed from the area due to the invasion of Genghis Khan and his Mongol hordes in the 13th century. 

And throughout the centuries, Ukraine has been a battleground of Germanic kights, the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Ottoman/Turkish Sultans and a host of other neighbouring powers trying to conquer the region. 

Ukrainians have only been independent since 1991, and in the proceeding 30 years, particularly during the Ukraine-Russian war in 2014 to the present day, a new distinct ethnic group and identity is emerging. 

Ukraine war can be likened to the American War of Independence from 1775 until 1883 because, like during that long conflict, a separate and new American identity was made that was partially distinctive from the home islands of Great Britain. 

Over time, each nation and culture group is fractured and reunited through a series of migrations, natural disasters and wars. The unity created by Holy Rome Emperor Charlemagne in the ninth century no longer exists today. 

There is no longer a unity between Italians, Germans and the French. 

As the culture divided and civilisation collapsed, newly independent nations and identities were created; this has happened before and will happen again. 

The most recent in human history was the collapse of the old imperial empires of the previous 20th century. It led to new nations gaining independence and winning their freedom after centuries of oppression. 

Despite the 1991 agreement that the Ukrainians would keep their independence if they handed over their nuclear arsenal to the Russian Federation, Ukraine, in perpetuity, would maintain its national independence. 

Instead, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has put forward a fictional argument that the Western world wishes to devour and destroy Russia. 

Vladimir Putin sees the world through a very old lens of the Cold War and previous centuries, making him out of touch with reality. 

The biggest crisis Russia faces is not from the West but from the collapse of its demographics, which is the same problem most of the Western world and other nations like China and Japan, especially South Korea, which have no future due to not enough people being born.

men in black and red cade hats and military uniform
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Ukrainians Fighting Russia

According to the Atlantic Council, a non-profit organisation that unites northern American and European analysts stated in a report published in November 2022 that the Ukrainians have the legal right to hit back against Russian installations that firing rockets into Ukraine. 

But the Ukrainians are not permitted to do so due to the fears of the Western backers that are worried the Ukrainians will start attacking the Russian Federation territory or Ukraine and launch offences into Russia proper.

Russians may launch nuclear weapons or trigger a global war against the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, starting World War three. 

The reason why NATO and the United States are reluctant to provide the Ukrainian government with missiles and aircraft is highlighted by US General Mark Milley, whose goal is to prevent an escalation of the conflict to avoid using tactical nuclear weapons. 

In a worst-case scenario, the Russians used tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which may avoid world war three, but this kind of attack on Ukraine may not necessarily mean war with the West. 

As for the Ukrainian’s reasons for not attacking Russia with its military, one is because they are still fighting Russians within Ukraine, and the second reason is that its supply lines come from the NATO alliance. 

Without the equipment, Ukraine could not keep fighting the Ukraine war. 

Ukraine cannot attack Russian territory, and it guarantees the Russian position of being the aggressor and never the victim. 

The war will primarily occur within the Ukrainian nation, and all damages and loss of civilian life will be Ukrainians. 

The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated as early as May 14, 2023, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would not involve any attacks on Russian soil. 

During the Discard leak of January 2023, it was revealed that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is very interested in attacking Russian targets within Russia that are being held back due to their allies in NATO and the USA having no skin in the game.

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Sources and Bibliography

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

https://news.sky.com/story/putin-comes-clean-on-crimeas-little-green-men-10368423

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-alexander-lukashenko-closer-look-at-the-belarusian-dictator-2021-5

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-hits-targets-across-ukraine-with-missiles-drones

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-president-counteroffensive-russia

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-report-leak-rcna84451

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/americas-far-right-embraces-hungarys-autocratic-president

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/31/ukraine-russia-war-hmars-mlrs-rockets-biden/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Russian_mystery_fires

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/22/die-in-fire-at-russia-defence-institute

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1603555/russia-fire-coal-fired-power-plant-sakhalin-smoke-clouds-oblast-thermal-plant

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fire-zhukovsky-moscow-ukraine-war-1708832

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/21/warehouse-fire-near-moscow-train-stations-leaves-several-dead-a79439

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/26/7382406/

https://czechia.postsen.com/world/85387/Kyiv-experienced-more-airstrikes-on-New-Year%E2%80%99s-Eve-a-nuclear-power-plant-was-on-fire-in-Russia.html

https://english.nv.ua/nation/military-facility-on-fire-near-russia-s-belgorod-russia-ukraine-war-news-50295215.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1718614/Russian-military-conscription-centre-fire-Bratsk-Ukraine-war-Vladimir-Putin

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-hit-by-another-mystery-fire-the-latest-is-a-huge-siberian-timber-plant/vi-AA16dpaW?category=foryou

https://www.newsweek.com/explosion-moscow-kolomna-ukraine-drone-attacks-1785303

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge_explosion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/04/10/russia-is-burning-who-or-what-is-behind-the-fires/?sh=70e68ebff21e

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/04/world/russia-ukraine-drone-attack-news

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-assassinated-russian-propagandists-1801233

https://www.newsweek.com/zakhar-prilepin-russian-politician-injured-car-explosion-nizhny-novgorod-1798794

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgorod

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17394

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/22/russian-border-region-says-ukrainian-sabotage-unit-carried-out-incursion-a81233

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/22/europe/belgorod-ukrainian-forces-russian-territory-intl/index.html

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-removes-nuclear-munitions-belgorod-amid-conflict-ukraine-1801940

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-update-russias-elite-ukraine-war-major-speech-2023-02-21

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/map-shows-little-ground-russian-103000910.html

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/166061999589255577

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63621426

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/21/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-zelesnky-encircle/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/more-than-8000-civilians-killed-since-russia-invaded-ukraine-un-2023-02-21/

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-ukraine-russia-us-nato-conflict/

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template

Social Media and Other Links

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Russian Demographics and Ukraine War

war destruction in ukrainian city

Russian Federation and Russia historically have been a kingdom, Empire and nation that is easy to invade but very hard to defend against the Mongols; the first French Empire and Nazi Germany found this out for themselves and a host of other nations that invaded or have had wars against Russia. 

Russia has flatlands perfect for Mongol hordes and organised armies and tank divisions. 

Russia has shown that it can defend itself if it controls the invasion points into Russia by controlling the Carpathian Mountains last time the Russians had this control and security was during the Cold War from 1945 into the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

Russians could only have security by having control of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia, including parts of Finland which Russia won during the Finnish-Soviet War of 1939 to 1940, more commonly known as the Winter War. 

This war also guaranteed that Finland would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the alliance network created by the United States of America to fight Russia. 

These geographical areas are essential to Russia because other power must do more than send tanks through these buffer zones. The territory is outside of natural defences, flatlands, and enough native infrastructure and space to ensure the war happens outside Russia’s borders. 

Russia’s defence planning mainly involves plugging the invasion gaps with soldiers and fighting along defensive lines. Russians fight their wars by rail, not by roads, due to massive infrastructure projects not being practical due to the natural Russian geography.

destroyed residential building in ukraine  Ukraine War
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Geopolitics

It is hard for Westerners and people growing up in a liberal, multicultural and democratic society and worldview to understand the motivations for Russian leaders wishing to conquer and hold vast sway of territory. 

It’s not only alien but an antithesis to Western values since 1945. 

What needs to be understood is that the Russian leadership and peoples come from entirely different historical and cultural backgrounds. Russians are not just Europeans; they are so Asians. 

The Russians are Europeans who meet the Mongol hordes and see what has been created in contemporary Russia due to Western and Eastern cultural influences. 

Russia is not a liberal society; it does not favour a liberal worldview that has been hard-won and thought for in the West, where the individual is just as important as the collective. 

This is why the Russians can afford to take losses of 5 to 1 or 10 to 1, and Western liberal nations can not afford those kinds of losses because the West favours individuality over collectivism is one of the significant differences between Western civilisations and other civilisations. 

There is also the Russian view of international politics when it is the survival of the fittest, where nations rise and fall in their abilities to protect their soil and compete to be the global or regional hegemony. 

History before 1945 was when nations thought nations were in an independent self-help system described by international relations scholars like John Mearsheimer, author of, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, and the system where nations fight for survival. 

Mearsheimer uses the example of Otto von Bismarck and their policy of destroying the Poles to prevent the recreation of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, which would threaten Germany and the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires, respectively. 

The reason why this was such a threat to Germany was that in the 19th century, Germany was surrounded by enemies to the West in the forms of the Second French Empire, the East by the Russian Empire, to the south by the Austrian Hungarian Empire and to the north the decaying Scandinavian powers of Denmark and Sweden. 

As for the North Sea, this was the territory of the British Empire, the largest empire the world had ever seen, dominating international trade in the 19th century. 

So like Russia and its actions in the Ukraine war and Germany in the 19th and early 20th century, these nations perceive themselves as being surrounded by enemies and aggressors who would see their destruction if given a chance but keep in mind their point of view. 

They are not protected by natural defences like Great Britain and the United States of America; they are islands onto themselves. Geography plays a massive part in political decisions, what Tim Marshall, a journalist and author, ‘prisoners of geography’.

devastated bus stop in town after bomb explosion  Ukraine War
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Russia Re-establishing Control of Invasion Gaps

Russia, since the end of the Cold War in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, has been trying to regain invasion gaps into Russia since 1992 with the occupation Transnistria region of Moldova.

In 1991 Moldova declared independence from the Soviet Union; shortly after this event, the ethnically identifying region Transnistria situated on the east bank of the Dniester River, unilaterally declared independence with the backing of Russia. 

The declaration triggered armed conflicts in the region, ending in a ceasefire on July 22 1992. Transnistria is a largely Russian-speaking population and has remained unofficially part of the Russian Federation since 1992, with Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria. 

Transnistria is home to Russia’s largest arms arsenal from the Second World War. 

For people reading this who are fans of history, the collapse of the Soviet Union is very much reminiscent of the partition of the German Empire at the end of World War I in 1918, the Empire was broken up, and independent states like Poland were created. 

Unfortunately, the divisions and new states created after World War I caused greater divisions and hatred that contributed to Second World War because ethnic Germans not living within the much reduced German Republic/Weimar Republic in 1918 and 1933 gave Nazi Germany a cause bill to expand its territories. 

The World after the Cold War did not effectively deal with the remnants of the Soviet Union and Russia after a Cold War spanning from 1945 until 1989; like the Second World War, the origins of the Ukraine War can be found in the aftermath of the Cold War. 

The Allied nations defeated the Russians, like Imperial Germany, after 1918. 

However, due to the Russian use and availability of nuclear weaponry, that state could ne be defeated, which, like the First World War, led to the Second World War from 1939 to 1945, the Russians were able to rearm and rebuild their economy to be a recurring threat to the West. 

‘Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much’-Oscar Wilde, an Irish poet and playwright. 

Russians have repeated this process of occupying territory to fill invasion gaps in Russia, the examples above Transnistria region and during the Georgian Civil War 1992 to 1993. On October 20, around 2,000 Russian troops moved to protect Georgian railroads. 

On October 22, 1993, the government forces launched an offensive against pro-Gamsakhurdia rebels led by Colonel Loti Kobalia and, with the help of the Russian military, occupied most of Samegrelo province. 

Again in 2008, Russians on the pretext of protecting Russians after Georgia deported four suspected Russian spies in 2006. 

Russia began a full-scale diplomatic and economic war against Georgia, followed by the persecution of ethnic Georgians living in Russia. 

By 2008, most residents of South Ossetia had obtained Russian passports. 

Like the Ukraine War, the Russian Federation created puppet republics since the 2008 war and subsequent Russian military occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian government, along with four other UN member states, considers the territories sovereign independent states: the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia.

entrance to residential building devastated by explosion  Ukraine War
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Russian Demographics

The Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, South Korea and Japan have some of the world’s worst demographics with Ukraine due to the Ukraine war since 2014 has entered the club of nations with decaying demographics. 

This means that nations that do not have replacement generations face the extinction of their cultures and economies because devout people who invest and work in the economy cultures and then nations would fade from human history. 

Massive gouges are out of the Russian demographics due to the trauma of the previous century, with World War II killing 22 and 27 million Russians. 

The great famine of 1930 to 1933 killed 7 to 8 million Russians and 4 to 5 million Ukrainians. 

One of the most significant demographic crunchers in Russian people was the missed decade of the 1990s, were death rates doubled and birth rates halved. 

What has been happening recently due to the war in Ukraine is that 1.3 million Russians a 35 and below fled the Russian Federation. 

This happened due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and to fear of being drafted into fighting as part of the Russian war machine in the classic throw bodies at the problem until it goes away strategy of Russian warfare.

silhouette photo of a mother carrying her baby at beach during golden hour  Ukraine War
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Sources and Bibliography

Atlantic Council The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light link

Wikipedia Russo-Georgian War link

United States Holocaust Memorial THE WEIMAR REPUBLIC link

TRT World What is the Russian army doing in Transnistria? link

Prisoners of Geography: Read this now to understand the geopolitical context behind Putin’s Russia and the Ukraine crisis: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall link

Zeihan on Geopolitics Ask Peter Zeihan: Will Putin “Disappear” and Updates on Russian Demographics? link

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The End of Germany as We Know It

neuschwanstein castle

Germany faces three major problems, with two currently out of Germany’s control.

No matter what happens, we will be witnessing the end of Germany as we know it over the next three decades and the end of the German ethnicity and culture within our lifetime.

Either way, Germany grew as a culture and nation, and we know today won’t be here by the end of the century.

The three issues that will cause the end of Germany are its declining demographics, which have been declining for over a hundred years; Germany has been over-reliant on natural resources from the Russian Federation and sending its manufacturing to China.

The final issue affecting Germany is its energy policy; with Germany having had multiple coalition governments with the Green Party of Germany, it has closed down other avenues for energy generation in favour of green energy.

At best, green energy, which is nuclear, solar, wind and other natural sources, only makes up 10% of Germany’s energy consumption.

This doesn’t make green energy bad, but only solar energy works where it’s sunny and wind where it’s windy. If you’ve ever been to Germany, it is not a very sunny place, so solar energy is not viable to replace traditional fossil fuels.

The problem with many European nations and other Western nations is the ideological gap between what works, what the voters want and reality. In this century, the nations that will prosper the most will be those plugged into reality.

The End of Germany as We Know It

Choices Germany Made

The reason Germany is staring down the barrel of a gun and seeing the destruction of its ethnic group within this century is due to choices made by the German government, German manufacturing and the choices of the German people not to reproduce.

These historical and demographic trends have affected Germany for over a century and since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. During the Cold War, Germany chose to maintain positive relations with the Soviet Union and eastern Germany.

The positive outcome of this experience was that Germany was reunited in 1990. From this experience, Germany hoped that the Russians and Chinese would transform from a totalitarian regime committing mass murder and genocide governments.

However, the Germans have chosen its two main trading partners, Russia and China, and cut ties with the United States even though the Americans are not the evil Empire.

With the war in Ukraine since February 2022, trade relations between the Russian Federation and Communist China collapsed immediately after trade sanctions started in Russia; the Germans opted to move predominantly to China as a trading partner.

Unfortunately, the Germans are finding out you cannot guarantee support and cooperation from dictatorships and totalitarian regimes, and now they have to pay for the consequences.

partenkirchen old town and mountains
Photo of Germany

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Deglobalisation: The US Withdrawal as Global Protector

america ancient architecture art

The driving force behind deglobalisation is the decrease in the size of United States destroyers in terms of the available numbers to patrol global shipping lanes and protect international shipping not just for the United States and its allies but also for non-aligned nations, including Russia and China.

As of writing, the United States has 150 destroyers and 11 supercarriers, insufficient to protect the global oceans. Its leading American allies, such as the Japanese, began a rearmament programme to protect their national interests.

As globalisation breaks down because the USA is no longer interested in maintaining a globalised international economy, the US allies will begin rearming themselves and pursuing a more independent foreign policy strategy.

The United States does not need globalisation even though it will lead to higher living costs and inflation as it brings its industries and manufacturing back to America.

Furthermore, the United States is a continental economy, meaning unlike smaller nations that have fewer resources, the United States doesn’t need globalisation.

Deglobalisation and Globalisation: Yalter Conference

Why America Created Globalisation

Unlike the British Empire during the age of the Pax Britannica from 1815 to 1914, the British pursued a free trade policy and the development of the first version of globalisation to enrich the English economy and expand its influence globally.

The British needed its empire to become wealthy by trading in foreign markets within the imperial system that the British and other imperial powers created in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries.

Furthermore, Britain is an island nation much smaller than its neighbouring European rivals and tiny compared to the United States. For the British to be a relevant power and successful, it relied on international trade and shipping.

The United States never needed globalisation and only created globalisation as we know it; the end of World War II in 1945 was to buy an alliance and win the Cold War against the Soviet Union, which lasted from 1945 to 1989 and the final collapse of the Soviet system in 1990.

With the end of the Cold War, the United States’ incentive to maintain globalisation is fading, and the growing disinterest of the United States since 1992 is leading to a deglobalisation of the international world order.

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Japan’s Rearmament

mt fuji

For people interested in the Far East, Japan’s rearmament is one of the biggest news stories to hit the region. It is historically significant for the Japanese, with their pacifist constitution being in force since the end of the Second World War in 1945.

On September 16, 2022, Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan since 2021, released three new versions of national security documents focusing on national security, national defence strategy and national defence programme.

The papers are the first significant change to Japanese defence policy since 2013; documents are also blunt regarding the threats facing the Japanese home islands being described as ‘the most severe and complex security environments as the end of World War II’.

One of the fundamental changes they made to the Japanese military budget was a move away from spending 1% of the national GDP, and national defence was the standard North Atlantic Treaty Organisation convention of 2% of GDP.

Currently, as a share of GDP placed in context, the United States of America only spends 3.1% of national GDP and is expected to decline to 2.8% by 2033. The current economy of the United States is currently at in terms of GDP $26.854 trillion. In comparison, Japan’s GDP is at $4.4 trillion and is the world’s third wealthiest nation.

Regarding Japan’s chief Pacific rival, the Chinese government announces defence expenditure information annually.

In March 2023, China announced a yearly defence budget of RMB 1.55 trillion ($224.8 billion)1, marking a 7.2 per cent increase from the 2022 budget of RMB 1.45 trillion ($229.6 billion).

Japan’s Rearmament

Why Japan Wants to Rearm

The current president of Japan is pursuing the rearmament and re-militarisation of his nation, which is quite surprising due to Fumio Kishida supporting policies of nuclear disarmament and coming from the piece wing of the Liberal Democratic party (自由民主党, Jiyū-Minshutō).

Three massive geopolitical threats threatened the survival and independence of Japan, with the Japanese government calling the Chinese ‘greatest strategic challenge ever to securing the peace and stability of Japan’.

The other two significant threats to the Japanese were the North Koreans and Russians. People in predominantly Europe forget that Russia stretches from Eastern Europe to the Japanese archipelago with the Sakhalin Island.

The Japanese did not favour rearmament and remilitarisation for two fundamental political reasons. First, Japan lost World War II and the United States in retaliation rather than trying the Japanese culture or its independence as a people.

America opted for a truly American and unique strategy to integrate Japan into the global economy, maintain Japanese identity and enforce a Japanese peace constitution.

An essential tenet of the pacifist constitution is Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which contains the No war clause.

It occurred on May 3, 1947, immediately after World War II. The text of the article of the Japanese Government formally renounces war as a right of sovereignty and refuses to settle disputes using military force.

The second or most fundamental reason the Japanese did not maintain a strong military was the security provided by the United States during the Pax Americana.

Unfortunately, the Japanese know Americans are no longer interested in global affairs and being the world’s policeman.

Since the election of William ‘Bill’ Clinton in 1992, American presidents have been increasingly focused on internal American politics, and the American public has voted for increasingly isolationist presidents.

George W. Bush went against this mould primarily due to the wars in Afghanistan that focused American political presidential leadership mainly in that part of the globe, which prevented George W. Bush and his successors, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, from focusing on the Pacific.

It must be stated that it wasn’t Donald Trump and his successor, Joe Biden, that saw American foreign policy moving from the European continent to the Pacific.

Even with the seachange, the American Navy has consistently shrunk since the end of the Cold War in 1989 and no longer can secure the world shipping lanes.

According to the geopolitical analyst, author, and YouTube Peter Zilhan, America’s allies increasingly have to fend for themselves in a more chaotic and disorganised world.

Japan’s Rearmament

Why Japan Needs Weapons

With the USA being overstretched with the war in Ukraine and when it comes to pursuing a naval policy with the US destroyers down to 150 and a focus on supercarriers, which are nation killers are not practicable when it comes to protecting the world’s oceans, Japanese must rearm.

With this environment, North Korea, China and Russia have more missile capability than the Americans and Japanese have in that region.

Japanese coastal defence missiles are currently limited to a range of just 200 km; even the air missiles Japan has acquired from Norway are only capable of 480 km.

This is not something the Japanese can tolerate any longer, with the Japanese planning to at least have the capacity to launch missiles able to reach targets at least 16,000 km, which is far enough to give the Japanese the capabilities to attack Beijing and Pyongyang in retaliative strike.

The Japanese government that the only reason they would ever use this capacity in a first strike and not a retaliative strike would be if they had solid Intel that North Korea, China or Russia was planning to attack Japan or its allies in the Pacific.

Opening phases of Japan’s rearmament were the purchase of Tomahawk missiles from the USA and a focus on domestic production within the Japanese home islands.

Furthermore, the Japanese government has contracted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to produce a Japanese homegrown type XII missile.

The Japanese government is moving quickly in a missile-buying bonanza to become less independent internationally from outside sources inside the Japanese home islands. Sipri stated that Japan gets 80% of its missiles from the USA.

Japanese are running out of Babies: Japan’s Rearmament

Problems With Japan’s Rearmament

The Japanese plan to rearm has one massive problem: the rearmament programme’s ability to have the population size necessary to fight a war on the battlefield and within industries.

Japan’s objective to improve the security situation in the region may not be feasible with Japan’s declining demographics, and its military has a problem with over 16,000 positions that cannot be filled.

If the Japanese cannot replace personnel, it is doubtful they could automate in time with the projection of the Chinese invading Taiwan within the next five years, nor is it possible to increase its birthrate in time.

The Japanese birthrate has been below replacement levels since the 1970s, partly due to the oil crisis in the early 70s and the issues in Japan and the ones being faced by most developed and industrial nations throughout the world.

The Japanese issues are caused by modern lifestyle, culture, and other factors that cannot be easily fixed, which Japan has been trying to fix for over three decades.

An option the Japanese could use is immigration. Unfortunately for Japan, South Korea and China, these are Monotonicity. Unlike their Western counterparts, they don’t have the option to bring immigration due to their protection attitudes to their culture.

Westerners, particularly people part of the Anglosphere, who are the English-speaking peoples, may perceive this as racist because if they moved to these nations, no matter what they do, they would never be considered Chinese or Japanese.

Western countries deduce they have this attitude toward culture. Still, it was decided politically and culturally to move away from a monoculture into a multicultural society, which these nations, as stated above, don’t have that option as a means to regrow the population numbers.

China is running out of Babies: Japan’s Rearmament

Chinese Internal Issues

The geopolitical analyst and author Peter Zilhan predicts that this decade will be China’s and Russia’s last decade as a serious international power, and he gives two main reasons for this.

The first one is a terminal demographic issue in these two nations that won’t start to recover until the twenty-second century.

The second reason is that the Russian Federation cannot maintain its multi-ethnic empire without a sufficient population, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unlikely but possible to maintain CCP leadership.

For these two reasons, war with China or Russia is highly possible.

Within the context of this article, China is the biggest problem for Japan.

The Chinese Communist Party is facing a perfect storm with an undercounting of its population by at least 100 million and China missing over 80 million women who have never been born due to the impact of the one-child policy.

The one-child policy was implemented due to the CCP’s ideology that allowed for state intervention, state eugenics and the overall attitude that the state has the right to play an active part in its population’s lives.

Because of these beliefs, the one-child policy, which started in 1979, limited Chinese couples to only one child due to the fear of mass starvation.

The long-term impact of that policy 40 years later is that millions of girls that could have been born have been aborted due to the desire to continue on the family name in the Chinese society that is more favourable to males.

Also, due to China’s declining demographic, it is a country that is getting old before it can get rich, in contrast to its neighbour Japan, which faced the same issue and has faced the same problem since the 1990s.

However, the Japanese managed to reindustrialise and revitalise its economy after it was devastated during World War II and became wealthy enough to pay for its increased ageing population.

As for China, it has run out of time with its Boomer generation hitting retirement this decade and the bulk of them most likely being dead by 2040.

What this means for the China Communist Party to survive even though it will most likely lose any foreign war with the United States and its allies.

There is a solid amoral case for the Communist Party.

Even if it lost the war, it got to choose the time and place of its defeat and dictated the narrative of Chinese history after the event, where the Chinese Communist Party’s priority was survival.

The Chinese Communist Party have rewritten history before with China’s so-called hundred years of humiliation from 1837 to 1949, which is based partly on historical nonsense.

China has been divided for at least half its existence throughout its long history, if not more, depending on how you view Chinese civilisation.

It has repeatedly collapsed, faced rebellions, and has seen Southern China repeatedly breaking away from the North.

Chinese history is long and complicated, and the public only tends to get a slim-down version. Very few people understand the strong ethnic divide between northern and southern Chinese, according to Jerrard Diamond, author of Guns, Steel and Germs.

As for the CCP, it is to survive. If this means at least half a billion dead Chinese, according to Peter Zilhan, that is something they can live with.

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Why Japan is Rearming

photo of a snowcapped mountain peak

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been in office since 2021, pushing for the rearmament and remilitarisation of the Japanese home islands.

Currently, Japan has no capacity outside of the support of the United States to launch counterstrike’s against China and Korea.

Its missile range is limited to 200 km outside of the Japanese islands; to have the capacity to attack Beijing and Pyongyang, Japan will need a capacity of 16,000 km.

The Japanese have allowed their military capabilities to dwindle for two main reasons: Japan’s pacifist constitution was enforced at the end of World War II in 1945 and implemented in 1947.

Part of this constitution was the Japanese would not launch offensive operations and would only fight wars in self-defence.

Why Japan is Rearming

The Japanese government is now changing this policy, stating that Japan will only launch a first strike if its sovereign independence is at stake.

They are further stressing that the only reason it would launch a pre-emptive strike is if they had reliable military intelligence that they are facing an immediate attack from a hostile nation.

The second reason the Japanese demilitarised after World War II was the United States being a guarantee of global shipping lanes and its allies willingly or unwillingly in the case of Japan giving over its foreign policy to the United States in return for protection.

It has been over 78 years since the end of World War II, and the United States was able to maintain this monopoly and control over its ally’s foreign policy because the United States created the international system and globalisation which enabled all nations to have access to resources outside of the home nations territory.

One of the key reasons why the Japanese started their imperialism project and took swathes of territory in the Pacific and on the Eurasian continent was the lack of natural resources inside the Japanese home islands.

So, in an imperialist and the survival of the fittest international environment, the Japanese chose to survive and prosper by taking lands and resources from others.

The Americans changed this by protecting global trade and enforcing global peace amongst their allies.

Since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, the Japanese have seen the Americans consistently vote into office individuals who are increasingly isolationist and disinterested in global affairs.

With America drawing this disenfranchisement in the American project of globalisation and internationalism that is causing American allies to start implementing their own foreign policy based upon their national interest, nations like Japan need to rearm.

In some respects, the American withdrawal from the world and being overstretched with the conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of a war in Taiwan in the next five years can be likened to the Roman Empire when it was heading towards its decline, having to defend far-flung provinces and overstretched militarily and financially.

Currently, the USA only has 150 destroyers and 11 supercarriers, which is not enough ships to protect global shipping lanes, which will see, according to the geopolitical analysis Peter Zilhan, more disorder happening in the increasingly deglobalised world.

Why Japan is Rearming

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The Art of Proxy Warfare

destroyed residential building under gray sky

Proxy warfare usually involves two or more powers or neighbouring nations engaged in a long, protracted conflict where both parties primarily use lesser powers to wage conflicts without directly using their full military and economic resources to engage in an all-out brawl.

The reason why nations engage in proxy warfare is that total war, particularly with the advent of atomic weaponry in 1945 and the destructiveness of modern war, makes direct great power engagement increasingly unlikely due to the share costs of open warfare.

(According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, total war is a military conflict in which the contenders are willing to sacrifice lives and other resources to obtain a complete victory, as distinguished from limited war.

Throughout history, limitations on the scope of warfare have been more economic and social than political.)

This is why contemporary nations and throughout human history have engaged in proxy warfare to pursue their national interest as long as there have been kingdoms or nations.

There are many contemporary examples today, with the French supporting their interests in Libya, Syria and Niger going against other Allied powers such as Turkey and Great Britain pursuing separate foreign policies in Syria and North Africa.

Turkey, for example, has seized parts of northern Syrian land and is in a low-level conflict with Russia over influence in Syria and a disagreement with other NATO powers regarding their support of Kurdish separatists in Syria.

Proxy warfare is not always between enemy nations. Still, it can be a great way for governments to pursue their regional and international foreign policies without severely damaging the other allies and interests around the globe.

Proxy Warfare: Cold War 1945 to 1989

Proxy Warfare Before 1900

The art of proxy warfare works best when draining the resources and the ability of a nation’s enemy to fight and engage in other conflicts and pursue its foreign policy around the globe by draining its Treasury and manpower.

Early examples of this strategy can be seen during the Hundred Years War between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of France from 1337 to 1453. During that long conflict, both kingdoms engaged in proxy war conflicts.

These proxy wars were fought in Brittany for the Brittany succession was a conflict between the Counts of Blois and the Montforts of Brittany for control of the Sovereign Duchy of Brittany, then a fief of the Kingdom of France.

It was fought between 1341 and 12 April 1365.

The war over the control of the kingdom of Castile from 1366 60 1367, and finally, the conflict between the Almanacs and Burgundians during the last phase of the Hundred Years’ War.

During these proxy wars, England normally drew the short straw. England at this time had a population between 3 million people and 5.5 million compared to the kingdom of France, which had a population between 14 and 25 million people. The French successfully used proxy warfare as a means to drain the finances of the King of England and remove their ability to wage war was successfully used multiple times.

After Edward, the Black Prince defeated King John II of France, who ruled from 1350 to 1364, in the battle Poitier 1356, successfully led to the capture of the King of France, and his youngest son, Philip, became the first of House Valois Burgundy.

This victory led England and the Plantagenet dynasty to assume control over the dukedom of Aquitaine and most of southern France for at least a decade. English successes were reversed by Charles V of France, who ruled from 1364 to 1380 and aptly called the wise.

His strategy for defeating the English was having them engage in a conflict over the control of the kingdom of Castile.

The English won the war, but his half-brother later murdered King Pedro the Cruel of Castile, and the English did not recover financially, with the Treasury of the Princeton of Aquitaine going bankrupt.

It is this success in the kingdom of Castile that led to the reversal of England’s fortunes, and by the time of Edward III’s death in 1377, the English crown was over £400,000 in debt, and the conflict with France would not resume again until the rain of King Henry V of England from 1413 to 1422.

Proxy Warfare: Hundred Years War

The Wars of the Roses 1455 to 1487

The Cousins War, or the Wars of the Roses, was a great example of a proxy war conflict where foreign powers would intervene in other nation’s internal strife to influence their foreign policies or ensure the enemy is focused on internal concerns.

For the English, the king of France, Charles VII of France, called Victorious, ruled from 1422 to 1461, and his son, Louis XI of the Spider, ruled from 1461 to 1483, backed different candidates for control of the English crown to keep England in a state of civil war.

The French monarchy and great powers engaged in this behaviour to keep the enemy weak and avoid protracted wars. If it hadn’t been for the Wars of the Roses and the madness of King Henry VI of England, then the conflict between England and France would have continued much longer.

The conflict finally ended when the Regency Council Charles VIII of France used Henry Tudor, who was very much a creature of Louis XI, as a means to destabilise the English crown with his success at the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485 primarily due to the pikemen provided by the French crown.

Proxy Warfare: King James II of England

Wars Between France and England in the 18th Century

From the late 17th century until the early 19th century, England and France became embroiled in a Second Hundred Years War or Third Hundred Years War, depending upon which historians you listen to; this new conflict was sparked with the removal of James II of England from the English throne.

His removal opened during the Glorious Revolution of 1688 to 1689. This marked the return of England as an international power within Europe, and its dreams of global supremacy over the French sparked a series of conflicts and proxy wars between both powers.

During the 18th century, the English became the masters of proxy warfare, with the English political classes and culture at that time being financially against creating a large army, seeing them as a means to attack the liberties of native Englishmen.

Due to this development, the English opted to support France’s foreign enemies with financial subsidies; during Frederick the Great of Prussia’s rule from 1740 to 1786, the English paid for his entire nation’s budget to fund them to fight the French and the European continent.

France spent 45 years out of the Hundred Years of the 18th Century at war, with most of their enemies being financially backed by the British for that time.

Another example of proxy warfare during the 18th century between the English and the French was the American Revolution or the American War of Independence from 1775 to 1883.

This is another excellent example of a nation: France supplied men, equipment, and financial backing to Britain’s enemy, leaving that nation weakened internationally and overstretched while trying to maintain control over the 13 colonies.

This scenario is repeated over and over again throughout human history, with the most recent examples being the Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989 and the American war on terror from 2001 to 2021.

Proxy Warfare: Korean War 1950 to 1953

Cold War Period

The Cold War lasted for around 44 years, from 1945 to 1989.

Throughout that period, both the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Republics or just Russia as we would understand it in modern terms were engaged in a conflict over which ideology, capitalism or communism, would be the future of humanity.

United States favoured a liberal approach to the economy where individual citizens had the freedom to invest their goods and services, invest in the US economy, and plan their futures.

In contrast, the Soviet Union favoured a state-planned economy where there was no freedom of market forces to dictate the development of new technologies and the worth of goods and services; this is why, in the last two decades of the Cold War, Russia so massively behind the Western world.

As for the conflict between both superpowers began almost straight after the ending of the Second World War in 1945; the first conflict was in Vietnam, with American involvement starting in 1947 until the conclusion of the Vietnam War in 1975.

The impact of this conflict was that it demoralised the American public against supporting the fight against communism and that the United States public began to mistrust his political leaders. The next conflict was much shorter, lasting from 1950 to 1953, called the Korean War.

With the support of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the United States successfully liberated South Korea from the communist North.

During this conflict, much like the Vietnam conflict, the Soviet Union supported the Chinese and the North Koreans in their war against the United States by providing them with equipment, and this was repeated during the Vietnam War.

The Cold War’s final great conflict was the Soviet-Afghan war, which was waged between 1979 and 1989. The United States supported the mujahedin (including Osama bin Laden, who planned the 9/11 attacks on the USA in 2001), fighting against the Soviet Union.

The significant impact of the Afghan-Soviet war was that it meant the death of the Soviet Union by 1989. The only form of legitimacy that kept the Soviet Union alive was its reliance on the prestige and capabilities of its military.

Without that legitimacy, their failure to win the war in Afghanistan meant the end of the Soviet Union.

Proxy Warfare: Volodymyr Zelensky

Ukraine Proxy War

Suppose any conflict in the history of humanity deserves to be called a proxy war. In that case, the Ukraine deserves that title and the definition.

However, the Ukrainians fighting their war for independence and emerging as a separate identity from Russia would differ significantly from my statement.

For the Ukrainians, the war they have been fighting for the liberation and independence of Ukraine has been going on since the Russians took the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 to the present day.

This could be likened to the American War of Independence from 1775 to 1783, with the Americans emerging as a separate cultural and political identity from England, the mother country.

For the United States and its Western allies, the Ukraine war prevents the opportunity to give a knockout blow to the Russian Federation and ensure Russia as a military power is contained within current territorial boundaries and becomes irrelevant due to its declining demographics.

Ukraine will be Russia’s last war due to the terminal demographic decline. It will take a century to make the corrections necessary to regrow its population due to the fall in birth rates since the end of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

As well as the chaos in the 1990s, Russia has had 40 years without a successful replacement generation that was big enough to replace the previous generations within Russia.

Here is how much Aid the USA has sent Ukraine between January 24, 2022, and July 31, 2023. The Aid has primarily been provided through appropriations bills. This information only covers aid to Ukraine and does not include all U.S. spending related to the war.

Total: $76.8 billion

Humanitarian

$3.9 billion (5%)

Emergency food assistance, health care, refugee support, and other humanitarian aid

Financial

$26.4 billion (34%)

Budgetary aid through the Economic Support Fund, loans, and other financial support

Security assistance

$18.3 billion (24%)

Training, equipment, weapons, logistics support, and other assistance provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative

Total military

$46.6 billion (61%)

Weapons and equipment

$23.5 billion (31%)

Weapons and equipment from Defense Department stocks, provided through presidential drawdowns

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Ukraine War: Winter 2023 and 2024

person in jacket running on snow covered ground

If you have been following my writing since July, you may remember me writing about the Russians targeting power grids and other energy sources during the winter of 2022 and 2023; the Russian Federation did this during the initial Ukraine war launched in February 2022.

The Russians targeted Ukrainian energy due to the complete logistical disaster because Russian mechanised units ran out of fuel for their vehicles and had to withdraw from northern Ukraine back into Belarus.

Due to the Russian military’s failures and corruption, they had to start using siege tactics because if the Russians did not defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, they would try to freeze them to death.

Furthermore, the Russians are deliberately targeting the Ukrainian ability to feed themselves and export agricultural products around the world, which could lead to a mass famine of at least 400 million people, primarily affecting China and the nations like Niger and Nigeria.

As of September, Putin has sufficiently disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports and agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the Russians were bolstering their wheat exports, so global supply has held steady, and prices are still down.

However, relying on Russian grain is unreliable due to the high potential of sea conflicts, privateering, or other factors that could disrupt Russian grain from the Black Sea to the rest of the world.

Eduard Zernin, head of Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters, cited a potential aggravation of what he called ‘hidden sanctions’ that ‘may lead to an increase in freight and insurance costs’ for Russia.

This ‘will be reflected in the price level of wheat and other grains on the world market’, Zernin told Reuters.

Give some perspective on the importance of Russian grain. Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, followed by Canada and the United States. Three countries export more than 20 million tons of wheat: Russia, Canada and the United States.

Russia accounts for nearly 24% of the top 20 largest wheat exporters.

To secure the screen supply, the best option, though it may be unrealistic due to a lack of political will in the West and both American political parties, Democrat and Republican, being hotly divided on the issue of Ukraine due to some Americans viewing the conflict as a foreign war.

The infrastructure development option is building railway networks connecting Europe and the grain from Ukraine to transport agricultural materials.

As the temperatures shift, we will see the Russians change their strategy again. They will transition from attacking Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure to targeting the power grid, but just because the Russian focus has shifted doesn’t mean grain markets will be stable.

Ukraine War

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The Ukrainian Counter-offensive

war museum perspective army

There are three main assaults to follow: one of strategic importance and the other being a mix of strategic and emotional significance because wars are not merely thought for strategic objectives but for emotional value.

Two examples of this can be found in World War II during the Battle of Britain in 1940, with Nazi Germany focused bombing attacks on the British people and not focusing on the more strategic and vital infrastructure, manufacturing and the Royal Air Force.

With the Germans pursuing emotional tactical strategies, they enabled the Royal Air Force to rearm and equip the Air Force to fight the Luftwaffe/German Air Force and maintain British air superiority.

The second example is during the Battle of Stalingrad, 23 Aug 1942 – 2 Feb 1943, the Germans needed to take the Russian oil fields to keep its divisions and mechanised fighting forces in action.

Instead, due to the interference of Adolf Hitler, the Germans focused on taking Stalingrad, which had no real strategic aims or significance.

Still, it had great significance to the Soviet Union because the city was named after its leader Joseph Stalin, and Hitler wanted to hurt Stalin’s pride.

We can see this again during the Ukrainian conflict, where according to University Professor Geoffrey Roberts, Bakhmut is becoming Ukraine Stalingrad and is draining the Russian Federation resources by focusing on taking a location that has no genuine significance regarding strategic importance.

It is estimated that over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded fighting to take control of that city; it’s now become an important symbol of resistance for the Ukrainians.

The purely strategic assault is a multi-pronged move on Zaporizhia, hoping to push south to the Sea of Azov. This would sever the land bridges of Ukraine proper and Russia proper…splitting the front in two.

The second assault was supposed to be an amphibious assault further down the river that would eventually cut off the Crimean Peninsula.

The Russians foiled those plans with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. And possibly triggering farming that has not been seen since the Soviet famine of 1930 to 1933 killed between 4 to 5 million Ukrainians.

The third assault is a push east into the Donbas. This would be no easy feat, but it’s on the table for one reason: if the Ukrainians can reclaim territory that Russia seized in 2014, it would be a global humiliation.

Humiliating enough to convince some of those Russian backers to reconsider their allegiances.

Sources and Blogography

Responsible Statecraft Whose ‘Stalingrad’ will Bakhmut be? link

Britannica Battle of Britain European History [1940] link

Imperial War Museum What You Need To Know About The Battle Of Stalingrad link

 Zeihan on Geopolitics The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Is Upon Us || Peter Zeihan link

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Donate To Ukraine Links

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Hospitallers link  

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China in Crisis

boy and girl in traditional clothes bowing their heads

China is in crisis; according to geopolitical analyst and author Peter Zeihan, this decade will be China’s last decade as an international power, and the entire system of the Chinese Communist Party may also implode with the breakup of China.

It’s not clear precisely what is happening in China, but China is in crisis, with youth unemployment hitting a high in June 2023, with 21.3% of people aged between 16 and 24 unemployed.

The reason is that not enough graduate jobs are being created in the Chinese economy to develop its middle class.

There is a mismatch between Chinese university graduates and the jobs available within the Chinese economy.

The last time there was this imbalance in China was the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, with mass protests on the Chinese mainland.

China is also facing a crisis with its population being miscounted by at least 100 million people, and those people are the millennials who have not been born, which has increased the price of labour within China and with retirement and ageing out of the Boomer generation.

Furthermore, in China, the Boomer generation is now hitting mass retirement at 60 unless they change their policy and increase the working age by decree or by law.

This will further harm China’s ability to export manufactured goods at low prices, with the United States moving its suppliers of manufacturing goods from China to Mexico to ensure Americans still have the choice and convenience of cheap manufacturing goods.

The rest of the world has not noticed the growing issues and crisis rowing within China due to distractions within domestic politics with the United States focusing on the Orange Man, a.k.a. Donald Trump, the Japanese rearming, the cover 19 pandemic due to governments looking inwards and not outwards.

China in Crisis and Chinese Baby

What Does This Mean with China in Crisis

The Chinese Communist Party put forward a grand vision of China being a united entity for at least over 2000 years, if not more, going back around four millennia; this is, unfortunately, complete and utter horse shit.

As a united entity, China has spent more years being divided into separate warring kingdoms than it has been a united entity.

China is a monoculture dominated by the Han Chinese, making up 92% of its population, though these figures vary by percentage points.

China is typically disunited, but during different moments in its long and bloody history, a power in the northern plains of China, a.k.a. northern China, is united under new dynasties or regimes that proceeded to go on and conquer the other regions of China.

China is a massive country that requires a centralised government typically run from northern China, with the other regions breaking away at different points in history only to be reintegrated into greater China.

China faces many crises that could see the nation shatter and reintegrate after a Civil War period.

China in Crisis Food and Energy

Food and Energy

China is dependent upon food and energy imports, and this is a reason why China is facing a crisis due to the reliance on supply routes stretching from the Bosporus and the Aegean, through the Persian Gulf and through the Indian and Vietnam, seas which is a vulnerable supply line for China.

All it takes is China’s enemies or state-sponsored privateers to seize these goods, which could devastate the Chinese economy.

If the USA and China went to war today, China would starve to death within six months.

China is dependent upon global supply chains and global security that have historically been maintained by the Pax Britannica from 1815 to 1914 and then from 1945 to the present day by the Pax Americans.

Basically, the Chinese depend on infrastructure and, more importantly, the protection of the seas that was guaranteed historically by the Royal Navy and then the U.S. Navy.

With the United States no longer interested in global affairs and that system is going away, the U.S. Navy focused on constructing supercarriers, which are nation killers and not destroyer-heavy Navy that is essential for protecting global shipping lanes.

As of writing this article, the USA has 72 destroyers and 17 cruisers, which is not enough to keep the seas safe.

China had to get rich and develop a strong international Navy before the Americans pulled out of the global system they had created.

Unfortunately, China is getting old before it can get rich and has not made the transfer from an industrial economy into a consumer economy.

Its domestic population can no longer meet the required domestic consumption that is no longer optional.