In February 2022, journalist H. D. S. Greenway cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 4 February joint statement between Russia and China (under Putin and Xi Jinping) as signs that Cold War II had officially begun.
The growing hostilities between the United States and the Russian Federation, including China, have been growing since early 2000.
The US is partly to blame for the new Cold War because President United States’ office focused on the Afghanistan war from 2001 to 2021.
By Understanding the American system, the American president, regarding internal issues and politics, has limited power due to the nature of the division of powers and the nation divided into 50 states.
These American states each have their legislative bodies and an elected governor to run each of the American states. This weakens the president’s office in regard to dictating internal policies.
Regarding international relations, US President has the full power of his office to do whatever he likes, providing they have the full backing of Congress regarding the budget for federal services.
One of the weaknesses of how the American presidency works is that there is only one person and their cabinet that is in charge of American foreign policy, and this was why presidents including Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump did not redress the expansion of Chinese power and the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008.
The New Cold War started because the United States’ political leadership was focused on the Middle East.
In many ways, the American president is like the Lord of the Rings villain Sauron; they only have one eye focus on one international issue or, perhaps more truly, one issue at a time.
American in Action
Nature abhors a vacuum, which is why the United States ignored its responsibilities to freedom and global prosperity at the end of the Cold War that lasted from 1945 until 1989/1991, with the final collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 20th century.
The Americans had George H Bush, the successor to President Ronald Reagan, who was in office from 1981 until 1989 and George Bush Senior from 1989 and 1992.
The American people had in George H Bush a president who fought in World War II and understood the importance of preserving international peace and democracy and had the most experience when it came to politics and international relations.
During the 1992 presidential elections, the American people voted out the man in favour of American actions and the deepening and reframing of what the American foreign policy would be in the 21st century.
Instead, the American public, since 1992’s, voted in more isolationist presidents and are Americans first regarding the foreign policy they are promoting, which has left early 30 years of American foreign policy operating on autopilot and being stuck in the 1990s.
The cult of Personality in China
China’s inability to govern itself is the cherry on top of it all, with China restricting the export of metals used in Greentech and semiconductor tech to the United States.
The US doesn’t have to worry about rare earths, but Germanium and Gallium don’t fall into that category.
While the Chinese may dominate the production of these metals, it can be attributed to subsidies and no one else wanting to do the ‘dirty’ work.
There’s nothing uber challenging about the process; it just requires someone willing to get their hands dirty.
As the bilateral relationship with China grows more hostile by the day, knee-jerk reactions like this material export ban will do nothing but encourage Americans of all political stripes to cut ties.
Americans are overly emotional and are drama queens.
Love them or hate them, the American hammer will come down on the Chinese, providing the American people stop whacking each other off in the American internal culture wars being a self-inflicted wound born out of self-indulgent madness.
Ironically, China has become the biggest promoter of the US moving as fast and far away from Chinese dependency as possible.
If the Chinese want to start a material input war, they might as well start the countdown sequence because they would be f****d.
According to the geopolitical analysis, the United States and the rest of the world have, at best, ten years to break from the China market.
According to the geopolitical analysis, author and writer Peter Zilhen to break away from the reliance on the Chinese for cheap labour and as a means to get raw materials.
In China, the next decade will have very rough and troubling times due to the failure of the millennial generation to produce children and the effects of the Boomer generation born from 1946 to 1964 not having children as well.
By the end of the century, the Chinese population may be below 400 million from its height of 1.4 billion people in the Chinese system.
In time, it will not be able to transform itself from a manufacturing economy to a consumer-led economy.
The rivals of the United States, even if they deserve to be called by that description, the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin and China under the increasingly authoritarian and one-man state led by Xi Jinping, are running out of time.
They don’t have the population, and they won’t have the economy to survive the consequences of not having a replacement generation.
China and Russia, in their current form, have 10 to 20 years of life left in them due to their population decline, and during this collapse could be sudden or slow; they may lash out at their neighbours.
We can see this now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and the seizing of the Crème peninsula, and we may see this in the Chinese state’s decision to throw caution to the wind through everything it has at Taiwan.
The American century is often referred to as the 20th century.
Still, with the decline of so many global powers and the looming population collapse, the 21st century may very well be another American century across America as the geography, natural resources and population can go it alone.
For the rest of the world, therein for a lot more pain, and the chicken is coming to roost with their failures, according to the historian David Starkey to create a legacy for their children.
The New Cold War will not last as long as the old Cold War, lasting over four decades.
This one will be much shorter, and the legacy may be far more painful after the disappearance of the American-led world security order.
The British, French, German, and Japanese will not have the political will or the strength to secure the world’s oceans and maintain the globalisation that the USA created; only Americans have that capacity.
And with the United States increasingly becoming more insular and more withdrawn from global affairs, we may see a world reminiscent of the 19th century.
Zeihan on Geopolitics Where in the World: Laramie, and Rare Earths link
AP News China restricts exports of high-tech metals in a slap at Washington ahead of Yellen’s visit link
The Atlantic A New Cold War Could Be Much Worse Than the One We Remember link
Zeihan on Geopolitics China Bans Greentech Metal Exports to the US || Peter Ziehan link
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