During May and June 2023, the Russian military had been reportedly meant to be mobilising an army of 500,000 strong, which has failed to materialise from the information available on the Russian mobilisation.
This would lead to the Russians using the strategy of attrition to break down Ukrainian resistance because the Ukrainian army could not take a one-to-one ratio of deaths, unlike the Russians, and Ukrainians had to fight with great competence.
Unfortunately for the Russian soldier, Russia typically fights its wars by throwing bodies had problem until it goes away due to internal corruption, partly because Vladimir Putin surrounded himself with yes-men advisers and a purging of the talented.
Incompetency and the Inner Circle
Minister of Defence: Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation and General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, who has been in charge of the Russian defence ministry since 6 November 2012, Shoigu is allegedly responsible for the loss of one-third of the Russian defence spending.
His underlings, those people working below, are also allegedly responsible for another third this is why the Russians have been performing atrociously since the lunch of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia typically starts its wars as an utter disaster for the Russian side, but the nature of the war should have changed in 2023 by having a much better performance, like during the First World War (1939 to 1945).
According to the new data, defence spending amounted to 1.18 trillion roubles in January and 822.4 billion roubles in February. Russia’s 2023 spending plan envisages 4.98 trillion roubles of expenditure on defence.
When looking at the numbers, it can easily be determined that the offensive from Belarus in 2022 and other engagements in the East of Ukraine are faltering due to a lack of equipment and other materials necessary to fight a war, such as transportation vehicles.
According to the American geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, Russians are being forced to use ‘Scooby Doo vans’ to transport munitions and other equipment to the battlefield and supply depots to the Russian army.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is the leader of the paramilitary organisation Wagner Group supported by the Russian Federation government. Currently, Prigozhin commands over 50,000 mercenary soldiers in the Ukrainian theatre of war.
His background was originally in catering, and he is nicknamed Vladimir Putin’s ‘chef’ he initially began his career in the catering industry before getting support from the Russian government to turn his business into a paramilitary organisation.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has been leading a campaign to take the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut Prigozhin for the past six months. He has no proper military and campaigning experience he has the skills to run a paramilitary organisation. Still, he is a beginner during the Bakhmut campaign.
Russian soldiers have to pay the price for this lack of experience, with the conservative estimate having Russian casualties of around 20,000 killed in battle with higher estimates being passed 30,000 killed.
These numbers may be much higher, with over 100,000 Russians being injured in the campaign to take the Ukrainian city, which according to the analyst Peter Zeilhen is not of any significant strategic importance to the war to subjugate Ukraine.
The New Russian Army
When the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022, they had a force of around 130,000 men or 150,000 men with a partial mobilisation which managed to raise around 200,000 conscripted soldiers.
From the beginning of the war until May 2023, it is suspected that 100,000 soldiers have been killed in combat in theatres of combat in Ukraine, with another 100,000 killed trying to take the city of Bakhhumt.
This means, in practical terms, that the initial soldiers that invaded Ukraine, including the casualties suffered by the Russian army, have now been destroyed; however, the numbers of casualties are inconclusive due to the fog of war and the misinformation from Russia.
With the second mobilisation of Russian soldiers to invade Ukraine, this new army will be less skilled and less prepared to fight the Ukrainian military, trained and equipped by the Western alliance to fight the Russians.
In layperson’s terms, the new Russian army attacking Ukraine will be in for a tough time, especially if Ukrainians fight a war of movement due to the new soldiers invaded Ukraine being very green and not being adequately trained to fight against tanks.
The new soldiers have not had the time probably train, making them less affected when creating antitank defences is not something that can be learned within a few months of basic training.
The Council of Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa
The Daily Mail https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12086897/Wagner-Groups-leader-waging-war-Ukraine-Vladimir-Putin-kill-first.html#:~:text=The%20man%20is%20Yevgeny%20Prigozhin,Group%20%E2%80%94%20and%20he%20is%20desperate.&text=Prigozhin%20is%20at%20war%20on,the%20Ukrainian%20city%20of%20Bakhmut.
Zeihan on Geopolitics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOGfw_Hx2-A
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